LibDems Soar in UK Opinion Polls

The latest British opinion polls are the first to follow Thursday's historic debate among the putative prime ministers. The general consensus was that the Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg won the day. Even Labour's spin doctors said that Mr. Clegg "won on style," while Prime Minister Gordon Brown won on substance. The question in the minds of millions was whether this would have any impact on the opinion polls less than 3 weeks ahead of the election. Now the UK knows that the answer is "hell, yes." Several polls have the Liberal Democrats in second, actually ahead of Labour, and one has them in the lead. The question now is will it last? The answer almost certainly "no."

A ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday gave Mr. Clegg's party 29% which is 2% ahead of Labour and two percent behind David Cameron and the Tories. This is 13% better for the LibDems than last week's IoS poll, and it is an 8% increase on the previous ComRes poll. Some 64% of the electorate now say they want Mr. Clegg to participate in the next government, and 68% give him as much credibility as Messrs. Brown and Cameron.

Three other polls confirm the Liberal Democrat surge. A BPIX/Mail poll that came out yesterday puts Mr. Clegg's crew at the top with 32%, the Tories at 31% and Labour trails at 28%. A Poll by ICM/Sunday Telegraph showed the Tories on 34%, Labour at 29% and the LibDems at 27%, but that is well up on the previous ICM poll. A third poll by YouGov/Sunday Times had the Tories at 33%, Labour at 30% and the Liberal Democrats well up at 29%.

Using the ComRes results, most models show that Labour, despite finishing third in the popular vote would have the largest contingent in the new Parliament with 278 seats to the Tories 238 and the Liberal Democrats 103. This demonstrates just how skewed in favor of Labour the current constituency boundaries and voting patterns are. Even the BPIX/Mail poll puts Labour ahead winning 273 seats. The Liberal Democrats would get 122 seats versus 224 for the Tories; a hundred seats fewer despite a percentage point more in the popular vote.

Of course, this isn't going to hold. For one thing, there are two more debates, one on Thursday and another a week later. This week's topic is foreign policy, and here Mr. Clegg is not really an expert, Moreover, the Liberal Democrats aren't particularly strong on the subject (although they did vote against the war in Iraq while Labour and the Conservatives backed it). Finally, the other two parties have wised up to the fact that there is a certain popularity that goes with being the outsider, and Mr. Clegg played this card exceedingly well in the debate. They will come after him the next couple of debates, and his support will inevitably fall.

One remembers that Ross Perot, running against Bill Clinton and George Bush the Elder in 1992 led in the opinion polls in June. Then, Mr. Perot had the support of 39% of the voters versus 31% for Bush and 25% for Clinton Through his own erratic behavior he managed to blow that lead (he withdrew for a while claiming GOP operatives were going to disrupt his daughter's wedding), but Mr. Perot still got 18.9%.

Nick Clegg isn't nuts the way Mr. Perot proved to be. However, the current love affair the British electorate his having with him is like a junior high crush. It won't last. But with 17 days to go, he might be able to hang onto some of his new-found support. A hung parliament is looking almost inevitable.

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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