Staring into the Abyss

14 May 2010



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Thailand Lurches Toward Civil War

Thailand's international reputation is that of an easy-going somewhat sensual country full of smiling people. In the last several weeks, that image has taken a beating. Anti-government "red shirts" have been trying to topple the government of Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva. They want a restoration of former Premier Thaksin Shinawatra who was kicked out of office by the army backing 2006, or failing that, they want new elections. The army has been called out, one of their number (Major General Khattiya Swasdipol) switched to the red shirts, and yesterday, he was shot in the head by a sniper. As the sun sets right about now in Bangkok, the country is on the brink of nation-wide violence.

Mr. Thaksin is worth billions of dollars, having started numerous businesses, a few of which succeeded (in cell phones and TV). He entered politics as many rich men do because they think a successful businessman can run a country. Mr. Thaksin seemed to be one of the few who actually could. He reduced rural poverty, provided health care to all, waged a war on drugs (which included summary executions of innocents), decentralized education and reformed the energy sector. As a result of all of this, his supporters tend to be the rural poor and their city-dwelling cousins, and they maintain that the political elite toppled him for upsetting Thailand's political structure.

His detractors note that a court convicted him in absentia in 2008 and gave him a 2-year prison sentence "for a land deal that enabled his wife to buy a valuable city plot for a fraction of its true value," as CNN put it. The network also noted,

The case currently being considered by the Supreme Court relates to the transfer of shares in his communications company Shin Corporation. The prosecution alleges he illegally transferred the shares to his family, who then sold them to the Singapore government's Temasek without paying tax. The court will also rule on whether Thaksin's government implemented policies that benefited his businesses, including a low interest loan from the Thai government to the Myanmar government to buy equipment from Shin Corp, a change in tax laws that benefited Shin Corp and changes to satellite laws that helped Shin Corp.
Some 76.6 billion baht, about US$2.3 billion dollars, is at stake. Rather than his country's leading reformer, Mr. Thaksin could be a Thai version of Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, a billionaire who plunders his own country while occupying the top political job.

When Mr. Thaksin's supporters occupied the parliament, it became clear to the government that things had gone too far. The army came out of the barracks, and surprisingly few people have died since the latest uprising in April. With the killing of General Khattiya, that may change quickly.

Currently, the red shirts occupy part of central Bangkok. The authorities have turned off the electricity and water to that part of town. Obviously, they would prefer that the siege end quietly, with thirst and hunger doing the job for them. The next three or four days are critical. Everyone should take a step back, and their leaders should return to the bargaining table. One doesn't expect that to happen, though. So much for the country's reputation.

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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