Israelis, Palestinians About to Engage in Pointless Talks

One will never go broke betting against peace in the Middle East; by the same token, one will never get rich either because no one wants to take that bet. However today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will engage in face-to-face talks that end a 20-month hiatus in the "peace process." After meeting with each yesterday, President Obama said, "As I told each of them today, this moment of opportunity may not soon come again. They cannot afford to let it slip away." The sound one hears is yet another opportunity slipping away.

To avoid receiving the label of cynic, one must justify this gloomy view of the discussions and explain why they are doomed to fail before they even start. Briefly, there are three large reasons for the looming break-down of talks. First, the fundamental demands of both sides have some points of mutual exclusivity. Second, Mr. Netanyahu cannot deliver the Israeli right. Third, Mr. Abbas does not speak for all Palestinians.

Beginning with the fundamental issues, there is little room for compromise on the two-state solution, the settlements, the status of Jerusalem and the rights of refugees. Israel is demanding that any Palestinian state be demilitarized so as not to pose a threat to the Middle East's only nuclear power. Just how sovereign can a state be if it cannot defend itself? Israel will be able, at any time, to re-occupy the Palestinian state. The settlements on the West Bank are not going to be torn down, nor will the Israelis surrender them to an independent Palestine. The result will be a Palestinian territory too small to function coherently; it will be doomed to fail economically if it remains independent. As for Jerusalem, Netanyahu has said the city would remain Israel's "indivisible and eternal" capital. That leaves no room for a Palestinian capital in the Old City. Finally, the Palestinians who were chased out of their homes in 1948 will get a symbolic right of return and some very real cash if they don't. Having waited 60 years to go home, will they really take a lump sum to give up the lands their families held for generations? Perhaps, but a few hotheads will reject the offer and retain their guns.

Even if these disputes could be resolved, Mr. Netanyahu could not deliver the Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu and other extreme right parties. Many of these people believe that God himself gave the Jewish people the lands of Samaria and Judea (the West Bank roughly), and therefore, they and their descendants are entitled to live there forever. This is not a fringe group but rather a notable minority. In the past, they have resisted Israeli army efforts to remove them from some settlements, and there is no reason to believe they would not resist in the future. This would likely bring down the Netanyahu government, force new elections, and the new leadership would probably not be able to pursue a peace deal.

As for Mr. Abbas and his Fatah organization, they do not speak for the people in the Gaza Strip. Hamas rules there. If he should cut a deal, Gaza will not be included, and there will be a split within the Palestinian body politic. It will not be unlike the transformation of East Pakistan to Bangladesh in the 1970s. Hamas will not deal with Israel, so if Fatah does, there will be two Palestines. That is hardly a formula for a peace settlement.

The basic problem of the region remains. While everyone says they want peace, what they actually want is victory. They are locked in a zero-sum negotiation, and from the top of the government to the very bottom of both societies, no one really is willing to surrender much to end the violence. While one agrees with Mr. Churchill that jaw-jaw is better than war-war, only the most naive would think, like Mr. Chamberlain on the tarmac from Munich, that the region can achieve "peace in our time."

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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