ETA Announces Permanent Cease-Fire, Again

Euskadi Ta Askatasuna [ETA] is the Basque name of the terrorist organization dedicated to the creation of an independent Basque homeland in northern Spain and southwestern France. For over 40 years, it bombed and kidnapped just like other terror groups while its political wing, Batasuna regularly won about 15% of the vote at election time. Batasuna was banned in 2003 by the Madrid government. ETA declared a cease-fire in March 2006, violated it 9 months later with a bomb that killed two Ecuadorans at the Madrid airport, and now, it is proclaiming its dedication to a democratic end to the trouble. This journal will believe it when the weapons are decommissioned.

The existence of ETA proves that the late and unlamented Bush administration's war on terror was always a war against radical Islam and not against terror. Had the target been terrorism as a whole, the US marines would have been in Barcelona and Pamplona all this time. Instead, the Basque struggle against political reality (Euskadi would be an economic disaster if independent) bubbled along as if the World Trade Center towers still stood.

ETA's change of strategy, a permanent cease-fire combined with negotiations, is a move born of weakness. More than 700 of its members are in prison. The non-nationalists (that is those who oppose Batasuna and its fellow travelers) won the regional elections the last time they were held, and the regional president, a socialist named Jesús Maria Leizaola, has been like a bulldog in clamping down on pro-ETA displays. Moreover, French President Nicolas Sarkozy has pressured ETA on the French side of the Basque homeland.

So, Batasuna believes that sheathing the sword is its way back to office in next year's municipal elections. ETA has gone along with this. However, one gets the feeling that Abe Lincoln was right, "you can't fool all of the people all of the time." After 850 deaths in 40 years (not really much of a murder rate to be sure compared with the IRA, let alone the PLO or Al Qaeda), the Spanish establishment isn't really interested in discussions.

"Some may call a ceasefire historic, or the end of the conflict -- but we've been there before. A ceasefire is just another tactic," believes Rogelio Alonso, associate professor of security studies at Madrid's Rey Juan Carlos University who spoke to the BBC about the ceasefire. "Holding talks with ETA could anger the families of victims of their bomb attacks. ETA is not interested in a permanent end to violence. We have tried dialogue many times. Holding more talks is a mistake."

This journal is a bit more hopeful. While ETA has proved that it can't keep its hardliners on-board with a ceasefire, talks cannot hurt. By the same token, the Spanish government is doing a fine job of rolling up the leadership of ETA, the French are doing their bit, and defeat of the micro-army may be at hand. Negotiations will be shaped by the situation on the ground in the Basque country. ETA is weaker than it has ever been, so letting it sue for peace may save lives. If Batasuna gets crushed at the polls, so much the better. It is difficult to see how an independent Basque nation is preferable to the federal arrangements Spain has created. Having a distinct culture does not suffice to underpin a nation-state. Independence would not necessarily make the Basque people better off. Peace certainly would.

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