US Chamber of Commerce Boss Says Dems Will Hold Congress

CNN is reporting that the president of the US Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest pro-business lobbying group, believes the Democratic Party will maintain control of both houses of Congress in November's elections. President Tom Donohue is going to spend $75 million on various candidates (perhaps on a lease-to-own basis) to protect the interests of big and not-so-big business. Nevertheless, he has told confidants he does not expect the GOP to carry the day in either chamber. This journal agrees.

Inside the beltway, the pundits and pollsters are convinced that a Tea Party/Republican tsunami will hit the nation on November 2. There is no denying that the right is making a great deal of noise. However, in a democracy, victory does not always go to the loudest. Those who think the Republicans will take either house are missing three important points. First, the mood of the country is anti-incumbent, not pro-rightist. Second, the Democrats' margins represent rather large hills to climb. Third, election day is 41 days off, and that's a very long time in politics.

Americans are angry, and rightfully so, about the economy. Wall Street screwed things up, neo-liberal policies that shipped jobs to China without creating alternatives has damaged blue-collar prospects for 30 years, and individuals borrowed more than they should have. If voters were rational in their anger, one might expect a victory for the far left. Instead, anger makes political thinking hard, and Americans are hardly the most sophisticated electorate on the planet to begin with. So, they just want to vote somebody out. This means that the incumbents are at risk regardless of party. As evidence, look at the incumbent Republicans who lost their nominations this year. That never happens when the mood is pro-Republican.

Next, the mathematics are simply against the Republicans taking enough seats to make majorities. The 59-41 split in the Senate (ever mindful that two of the 59 are actually independents, Messrs. Lieberman and Saunders) means the GOP needs to pick up 10 seats. Only one third of the Senate is up for re-election in any election year; add in special elections to fill prematurely vacated seats, and there are 37 Senate races this year. Of these, 19 are held by Democrats (seven of whom are retiring or were defeated in the primary) and 18 are held by Republicans (eight of whom are retiring or were defeated in the primary). The math easily argues against a 10 seat swing. Moreover, the Tea Party is helping put up weak Republican candidates (Ms. O'Connell of Delaware for instance) moving things the Democrats' way.

Over in the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for grabs, the Republicans must win 39 seats from the Democrats to have a single seat majority. However, that presumes that they hold each and every seat they currently hold. Psephologists may have polls showing 45-seat turnovers, but truthfully, the GOP is going to lose some of its seats due to the anti-incumbent mood.

Finally, a lot can happen in 41 days. Usama bin Laden could be captured or killed. North Korea could collapse. The west coast could suffer an earthquake. The stock market could rise or fall 500 points in a day. All of these could make a difference of a point or two either way. Right now, it appears that the GOP has the lead, and that means that events are more likely to hurt than to help them. Change usually comes at the expense of the front-runner.

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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