Kensington Review

Re-Rigging the System

28 October 2010

America's Real Electoral Action is in the State Legislatures

The chattering classes have wound themselves up over next Tuesday's mid-term elections, and the pontificating beforehand is in top gear. The conventional wisdom is that the Republicans will take the House of Representatives and may gain a majority in the US Senate. If so, say the nattering nabobs of numskullism, President Obama's agenda will suffer. This is true, insofar as it goes, but the real political power play is happening not in Washington, DC, but in the 50 state capitals. This election will determine which party controls which state's legislature, and therefore in many cases, which party will gerrymander congressional districts to its advantage for the next decade.

For some states, this is actually a moot point. Either they have just one member in the House or a "non-partisan" commission of some sort draws the boundaries. Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North and South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming fall into the former category. Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, New Jersey and Washington make up the latter. All of the really big states, though, allow their politicians to carve up the state to suit the ruling party's interests.

The finest example of the kind of shenanigans this allows comes from Texas at the early part of this decade. After the 2002 mid-terms, Texas had 17 Democratic members of the House of Representatives and 15 Republicans. At that same election, the Republicans took control of the Texas legislature (for the first time in 130 years), and they proceeded to redraw the boundaries. Despite a great deal of controversy and court challenges, the Texas government eventually adopted a pro-GOP map. In the 2004 election, Texas sent 21 Republicans to the lower house in DC and only 11 Democrats.

Of course, the ideal way to end this nonsense is for each state to elect its congressional delegation using a single transferable vote in a multi-member constituency (already used to elect the city council and school committee in Cambridge, Massachusetts, as well as the park board in Minneapolis). The opponents of such a move opine that people don't understand STV, that it undermines the tie between constituent and representative, and that it allows gadflies a chance to make a mockery of democracy by winning seats they wouldn't otherwise win. However, it scores a knock out over the current system because it isn't rigged or even riggable. And for that reason, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will support it.

On Tuesday, the key will be to see which states give one party the governor's mansion and both houses of the state legislature (save unicameral and "non-partisan" Nebraska). Voters are choosing 37 governors, and more that 80% of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats on Tuesday. The Democrats hold both chambers in 27 states, the GOP 14, with 8 divided. The bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures suggests the GOP could pick up control in Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which account for about 25% of the House of Representatives.

The federal elections will influence the next two years of the Obama administration, and if the Republicans take control of either chamber in DC, ugly investigations and rampant obstructionism and grandstanding will follow. However at the federal level, the election of 2010 could be undone in 2012 if no boundaries were to change. It is the effect of the state elections in 2010 and the subsequent gerrymandering that will force America to live with the results of this election for a decade.

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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ll determine which party controls which state?s legislature, and therefore in many cases, which party will gerrymander congressional districts to its advantage for the next decade.

For some states, this is actually a moot point. Either they have just one member in the House or a ?non-partisan? commission of some sort draws the boundaries. Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North and South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming fall into the former category. Arizona, Hawaii, Idaho, New Jersey and Washington make up the latter. All of the really big states allow their politicians to carve up the state to suit the ruling party?s interests.

The finest example of the kind of shenanigans this allows comes from Texas at the early part of this decade. After the 2002 mid-terms, Texas had 17 Democratic members of the House of Representatives and 15 Republicans. At that same election, the Republicans took control of the Texas legislature (for the first time in 130 years), and they proceeded to redraw the boundaries. Despite a great deal of controversy and court challenges, the Texas government eventually adopted a pro-GOP map. In the 2004 election, Texas sent 21 Republicans to the lower house in DC and only 11 Democrats.

Of course, the ideal way to end this nonsense is for each state to elect its congressional delegation using a single transferable vote in a multi-member constituency. The opponents of such a move opine that people don?t understand STV, that it undermines the tie between constituent and representative, and that it allows gadflies a chance to make a mockery of democracy by winning seats they wouldn?t otherwise win. However, it scores a knock out over the current system because it isn?t rigged or even riggable. And for that reason, neither the Democrats nor the Republicans will support it.

The key is to see which states give one party the governor?s mansion and both houses of the state legislature (save unicameral and ?non-partisan? Nebraska). Voters are choosing 37 governors, and more that 80% of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats on Tuesday. The Democrats hold both chambers in 27 states, the GOP 14, with 8 divided. The bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures suggests the GOP could pick up control in Alabama, Colorado, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which account for about 25% of the House of Representatives.

The federal elections will influence the next two years of the Obama administration, and if the Republicans take control of either chamber in DC, ugly investigations and rampant obstructionism and grandstanding will follow. However at the federal level, the election of 2010 could be undone in 2012 if no boundaries were to change. It is the effect of the state elections in 2010 and the subsequent gerrymandering that will force America to live with this election for a decade.