Iraq-Namese Politicians Agree on Deal to Form Government

The Iraq-Namese people voted on March 7 for a new parliament, and the results of that poll were inconclusive. As of today, there is still no government, but the political leaders have finally agreed to a formula that will allow them to form one. The previous world record for post-election deadlock was 208 days held by the Dutch who voted on May 25, 1977, and finally got a government seated on December 19 of that same year. The Iraq-Namese have shattered that by going 249 days without a government. The new deal suggests that the new bunch will largely have the same faces in the same places as in the previous government.

To understand the mess, a review of the electoral results is in order. Out of the 325 seats, a plurality of 91 seats went to Al-Iraqiyya, led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi, a secular Shi'ite widely supported by Sunnis and the preferred candidate of the US. Next with 89 came incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law Party, a largely Shi'ite group. The Iraqi National Alliance, another Shi'ite bloc which includes the supporters of Hojatoleslam Sayyid Moqtada al-Sadr, secured 70 seats, 39 or 40 of them belonging to the Sadrists. The Kurdish Alliance won 43 seats, and 32 went to other groups and independents. A majority is 163, so mathematically, any government would have to include at least two of the larger blocs.

Politically, there were problems putting two of the three big blocs together. First and foremost, Al-Iraqiyya and State of Law were not going to work together. Messrs. Allawi and al-Maliki have been rivals for a long time. The INA's Sadrists faction would not back Mr. al-Maliki but did not like the Sunni support for Mr. Allawi. Moreover, leaving the Kurds out of the equation would have created separatists pressures.

Last night, the log-jam broke. The key appears to be the establishment of a National Council for Strategic Policy, sort of a booby-prize for Mr. Allawi. The powers of the council are unclear but all strategic decisions over security, foreign policy and anything concerning the "destiny" of the country, would have to be passed unanimously by the council. Mr. Allawi may not accept the position, and President Obama has appealed directly to him to participate in the government.

From here, the parliament must elect a new president, two deputies, and a prime minister, who has a month to get a cabinet in place. Under the terms of the deal, Mr. Al-Maliki will be Prime Minister. Kurdish leader Jalal Talabani will remain as president. Earlier today during parliament's second meeting since the election, lawmakers on elected Osama al-Nujaifi, a Sunni Arab from the Iraqiyya bloc, to be the parliament speaker. The new speaker is a Sunni hard-liner with strong backing among his people in the north and is hated by many Kurds.

The biggest change in Baghdad will be the role of the Sadrists. One of their members. Hakim al-Zamili, told the press "We think that the first decision the government should take is to change some ineffective military commanders and purge the security forces of corrupt members." The implication is that members of the Sadrist militia, the Madhi Army, may take over commanding positions in the security forces. This would be a blow to the West and a major coup for the Sadrists' main supporter, Iran. Iraq-Nam's orbit spirals ever closer to Tehran, and this opera isn't over. The fat lady has not even made it to the stage let alone sung.

© Copyright 2010 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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