Labour Retains Seat at By-Election

The Labour Party has improved on its general election result in the by-election held yesterday in the Greater Manchester constituency of Oldham East and Saddleworth, dubbed "Old and Sad" in the media. Turnout was down from 61% at the general to about 48% now. Debbie Abrahams came first with 14,718. Elwyn Watkins of the Liberal Democrats, who finished second at the general by only 103 votes, won 11,160 votes, and the Tories' candidate Kashif Ali saw his vote collapse, securing just 4,481 votes. Mr. Watkins is the first victim of the Coalition's unpopularity, and he likely won't be the last.

The by-election resulted from a court decision which vacated the result of the general election. A specially convened election court (the first assembled in 99 years) found that the Labour candidate, Phil Woolas, had lied in his literature about Mr. Watkins. The BBC stated that Mr. Woolas, "was accused of stirring up racial tensions in his campaign leaflets by suggesting Mr Watkins had pandered to Muslim militants, and had refused to condemn death threats Mr Woolas said he had received from such groups." This was patently untrue, and as a result, Mr. Woolas received a 3-year ban from parliament, and the by-election was called. In short, Mr. Woolas had his seat taken from him for lying about an opponent. In America, such a law would result in special elections on a daily basis.

Naturally, each party is spinning the result its way. Labour's leader, Ed Miliband, has the easiest job, putting a positive spin on a victory. He told the press, "This is a first step in a long journey for Labour but, more importantly, I hope the Government will listen to what they've said about these key issues. They said to the Government: think again on VAT, think again on the trebling of tuition fees, think again on the police cuts."

LibDem boss and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg argued, "I think the strong result in this by-election for the Liberal Democrats shows that whether we are in government or in opposition, we remain a strong, united independent party whose values continue to attract support. I think it was a strong result, given the circumstances in which the by-election was fought. It was a by-election held in unusual circumstances at a time when the Government is taking difficult decisions, of which we are a part." Liberals of old used to call this a "moral victory," which outnumbered the party's elected MPs by about 100 to 1.

The Tories may have thrown the election to prevent a LibDem disaster, keeping up morale in the Coalition's junior partner party. Naturally, the top Conservatives denied this. Conservative Party co-chairman Baroness Warsi stated, "It was resourced properly. We had volunteers on the ground. We had professionals on the ground. We had a great local candidate." That belies a collapse in the Tory vote of more than 7,000 from 11,773 votes Mr. Ali won in the general election, although tactical voting by Tory supporters cannot be ruled out.

Two more by-elections loom in England. Eric Illsley, MP, is resigning because of his conviction over abuse of the expenses system. His majority of 11,000 may decline, although it is unlikely. Even if it does, a majority of 11,000 is tough to overturn. Labour will certainly keep the seat. Meanwhile, Labour's Sir Peter Soulsby, MP, may resign his seat of Leicester South to become mayor of that city. This race would be only slightly tighter. Politics.co.uk reports, "A by-election in the seat in 2004 saw Lib Dem Parmjit Singh Gill beat Sir Peter with a 1,654 majority, but the result was reversed in 2005. Sir Peter improved his majority over Mr Gill to 8,808 last May." One guesses that the unpopularity of the Coalition will ensure Labour keeps this seat.

This bodes poorly for the referendum on switching to the alternative vote, a key LibDem policy. While the Tories are likely to campaign for a "No," Labour is likely to split, and the unpopularity of the LibDems could well drag the issue down to defeat. If that happens, one must wonder just what the LibDems are for.

Editor's Note: I have known Elwyn Watkins for coming up on 30 years, back when our hair was darker and fuller, waistlines narrower, and popular music better. He was active in student politics at the London School of Economics (as was Tory MP Richard Bacon, another friend), and well-liked across the very wide political spectrum there (save perhaps for the Spartacists, who hated everyone as a matter of principle). Ms. Abrahams will have to be a very good constituency MP to meet the genuine love Mr. Watkins has for the people of the northwest of England. I hope she is.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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