Chaos Engulfs Egypt and Western Media

For the past week, Egyptians have rallied in the streets protesting the very existence of the Mubarak regime. For the past week, no one has really been in charge in Egypt. And for the past week, the western media has tried and failed to figure out what happens next in that ancient nation. The truth is that no one knows how this will end, but the odds are a strong man emerges to end the revolution (France had Napoleon, Russia had Lenin, China had Mao, and Iran had Khomeini). While the outcome is unclear, one can draw a few lessons from this incident already.

First, elected politicians don't pay any attention to policy analysts in making their decisions. Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt under a state of emergency for 30 years, since the assassination of Anwar Sadat (himself an authoritarian ruler). For 30 years, experts on Egypt have said that the regime could only survive by sitting on bayonets. Eventually, that throne becomes too uncomfortable. Yet no western politician has ever done more than pay lip service to the idea of Egyptian reform. The lesson was there to be learned, but numerous presidents and prime ministers ignored it. They almost never listen to the experts.

Second, the new media is no better than the old media for organizing resistance. In the bad old days, a handful of colonels would decide to mount a coup, and they would shut off phone service and seize the radio and TV stations. This time around, the protesters were Tweating, Texting and Facebooking, so the government shut off the Internet and cell phone service. When these methods of communication were seen as something 14-year-olds used, governments failed to appreciate their power. They are no longer underestimated, and so, are less effective because of that "off" switch.

Third, revolutions occur not because the people are suffering bone-crushing poverty but rather because there is a well-off, well-educated group in a society without enough power or enough of a future to feel part of the greater society. This revolution, if that is what it is, is not being led by the Egyptians who get by on $2 a day but by those who have the means to acquire a university education and who have had no job prospects since graduation. The peasants and the uneducated are not the problem. The revisionist class of young, rather well-off are the dangerous ones. Revolution will not come to societies of old people, like Japan. But in nations like Egypt (where most of the population is under 25), the kids need to be alright or the country won't be.

Finally, almost none of what is happening in Egypt right now has anything to do with outside powers. The average Egyptian protesting right now doesn't care what the chattering classes in Washington, London or Paris are saying. There are no outside agitators either. To the extent that there is a cohesive organization among the protesters, it is the Muslim Brotherhood, which was founded in Egypt in 1928. It is safe to say that whatever happens in Egypt, the Egyptians will decide. The rest of the world will have to live with it.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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