Mubarak Leaving Office, Later, Much Later

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has finally seen the handwriting on the wall. His 30 years as ruler of the country are over, and the protesters in the street must have their way. Last night, he agreed to go quietly and peacefully. There was just one catch. He's not leaving office until after September's elections. He is trying to ride out this storm of popular protest, and there are signs that he just might get away with this. At the same time, there are signs that this could still end in bloodshed.

During his speech, Mr. Mubarak promised not to seek a sixth term in office, offered constitutional reform and vowed to devote what time he has remaining in his term in office to organizing an orderly transition. He also stated, "This is my country. This is where I lived, I fought and defended its land, sovereignty and interests, and I will die on its soil." No quiet exile in London or Riyadh for him.

The immediate response from the opposition was predictable; his offer not to seek another term wasn't enough. Abdelhalim Kandil, leader of Egypt's Kifaya [Enough] movement said, "I will tell you very simply that there is an unprecedented popular movement that rejects the presence of the president on a scope that has not been seen before, that is calling for the will of the people to be imposed." Former IAEA chief Mohamed El Baradei said the whole thing was a "trick" to keep Mr. Mubarak in power. As many as 2,000 protesters stayed in Tahrir Square in Cairo chanting, "We will not leave!"

However, numerous pro-Mubarak supporters came out into the streets after his speech. Patrick Martin of Canada's Globe and Mail reported that thousands of pro-regime protesters were shouting "Yes, Yes, Yes Hosni" and "Down with the coward Barradei" as they filled Mustafa Mahmoud square across a bridge from Tahrir Square. Mr. Martin quoted one rather shrewd observer, Mayan Fawaz, a 30-year-old PR professional, as saying, "The demonstrations I saw yesterday looked like they were orchestrated. If these people were really pro-Mubarak where on earth have they been the past week? People on the streets were saying these demonstrators were hired by the NDP [ruling party]." Yet, there they were. Mr. Martin also reported that there were clashes between pro- and anti-government protesters in Tahrir Square.

Whether these reports are exaggerated or even true matters very little right now. What does matter greatly is the attitude of the army. In vowing not to fire on peaceful protesters, the soldiers kept the death toll to a minimum and ensured that Mr. Mubarak would have to go somehow. That said, an army spokesman was on Egyptian TV last night saying to the protesters, "You have the power to bring stability back to the country. We are urging you as respectful citizens to go back home." Translated, that means, "the party's over, and you have been warned."

Mr. Mubarak's plan is obvious; with his concessions, he hopes to take some wind out of the sails of the protest movement. Demonstrators who support him (hired or not) are another way to do this. The next big moment will come after Friday prayers, when the opposition will have another chance to fill the streets easily and make their voices heard. The questions are whether the army will let that happen, whether pro-government protesters engage in combat with the opposition and whether Mr. Mubarak will relent afterwards and leave office sooner. Right now, the answers look like "no one knows," "probably" and "not a chance." This is going to get worse before it gets better.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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