Yemeni "Day of Rage" Mirrors Egypt's Uprising

While the situation in Egypt receives second-by-second attention from the Western politicians and the media, a similar story is developing in Yemen that may have security implications for the world of a much different and perhaps more dangerous variety than those of post-revolt Egypt. Yesterday, 20,000 anti-government protesters rallied in the main square (like Cairo's called "Tahrir") of the Yemeni capital city, Sana'a. Like Egypt, Yemenis are young, their economy struggling and their government crooked. Unlike Egypt, Yemen has been a fertile recruiting ground for Al Qaeda.

Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who like President Mubarak has been in office 3 decades, has clearly learned from the Egyptian example. He announced before the protests yesterday at an emergency meeting of the local parliament that he would not seek another term after his current one ends in 2013. Moreover, he pledged not to turn the nation over to his son. "No extension, no inheritance, no resetting the clock," he explained. "I present these concessions in the interests of the country. The interests of the country come before our personal interests." With that on the table he asked his opponents to "freeze all planned protests, rallies and sit-ins." They declined, and the situation in the next few months is now best described as civil war.

This civil strife is not new to the country, which has 23.4 million citizens. Yemen has 35% official unemployment, 45% living below the poverty line, and the median age is 17.9 years. Malnutrition is rising. In short, it's a miserable place, and Yemenis in the tens of thousands had rallied in January urging Mr. Saleh to resign. After the Tunisian uprising, he cut income taxes in half, ordered price controls and has promised to pay civil servants and the military an extra $47 a month, a significant boost. Tahrir Square still attracted protesters yesterday.

Where the Yemeni situation differs from the Egyptian one is the presence of Al Qaeda. Businessweek's Henry Meyer wrote today, "Al-Qaeda's Yemen-based wing has launched cross-border attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter and holder of one-fifth of global reserves. In August 2009, it tried to assassinate the top Saudi anti-terrorism official, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef bin Abdulaziz. The group was also responsible for sending two parcel bombs to US synagogues in October." Mr. Meyer also talked to Theodore Karasik, director of research at the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, in a phone interview, and was told, "The situation in Yemen may be completely different to what you see in Egypt, because Yemen is already a broken state and this might exacerbate conditions there even more. It's going to make it more difficult to go after al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula."

There were also pro-government protesters whose numbers also were in the thousands, or perhaps tens of thousands. They never mixed with the anti-government forces. However, the opposition has said there will be protests every Thursday until they are satisfied. Next week may not see the same peaceful end of the rallies that this week did. While all eyes will be on Egypt tomorrow to see what happens after Friday prayers, Al Qaeda may benefit from events in Yemen that few are watching.

© Copyright 2011 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.

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