Yellowhammered

12 September 2019

 

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

No-Deal Brexit Forecast Published

 

Parliament forced the British government to publish the contingency plans for a No-Deal Brexit, known as Operation Yellowhammer. This is the Whitehall mandarins' worst-case scenario, or as they put it "reasonable worst-case assumptions." The publication did not include the communications among Number 10 aides, which some MPs wanted revealed to give context to the Yellowhammer papers. It would have been useful to have those exchanges, but what has been published is grim enough reading.

The main impact on the economy of a No-Deal Brexit is a disruption of distribution systems. In particular, the food, fuel and medicine supply chains would suffer. The people who will suffer the most from this will be the poor; they always do.

The BBC states, "On food, the document says certain types of fresh food supply 'will decrease' and 'critical dependencies for the food chain' such as key ingredients 'may be in shorter supply'. It says these factors would not lead to overall food shortages 'but will reduce the availability and choice of products and will increase price, which could impact vulnerable groups'."

The Beeb adds, "The flow of cross-Channel goods could face 'significant disruption lasting up to six months. Unmitigated, this will have an impact on the supply of medicines and medical supplies,' it says. The reliance of medicines and medical products' supply chains on the short straits crossing make them particularly vulnerable to severe extended delays."

The Yellowhammer papers also note that the civil service and government expect protests and counter-protests; a black market expansion is likely; adult social care will suffer; some businesses will go bust; and it could take lorries two days to clear Channel ports.

The situation is much more aggravated in Northern Ireland, where the UK has a land boundary with the Irish Republic, an EU member. The trade between North and South will be "severely disrupted." Hardest hit will be agriculture, a major industry on the island. Jobs will go, and some businesses will fail. Others will move, and those that don't will have higher costs that will either be passed on to consumers or will eat into profits. Either will damage economic growth.

That leaves out the worst part for Ulster. The Yellowhammer papers expect growth of the "illegitimate economy" around the border "where criminal and dissident groups already operate." In other words, the peace brought by the Good Friday Accords is also at risk.

Regardless of whether one buys the idea that Brexit is about retaking control of power from Brussels, the Leavers didn't vote for the things Yellowhammer details. Yet, they are exactly what a No-Deal Brexit delivers. GDP will shrink, and unemployment will go up. If that is the price of regaining control, the government has a duty to all Britons to make the disruption as pain-free as possible. So far, the Johnson government has failed to do that. Given what's in the papers, it is clear that the House of Commons would have raised hell were it not prorogued. 

 

© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.


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