Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trump Picks O'Brien as National Security Advisor
Neocon warmonger John Bolton was fired as Donald Trump's National Security Advisor last week, or to hear him tell it, he resigned over principle. Either way, he is gone, and Mr. Trump has chosen his successor. Robert O'Brien, the State Department's hostage envoy. He is a long-time diplomat who has served both President Bush the Lesser and Mr. Obama as well as being an advisor to Mitt Romney during his presidential campaign. His appointment is an improvement over Mr. Bolton, but the fact is that Mr. Trump will continue to do as he pleases in foreign affairs. In other words, if America goes to war, it will be through miscalculation rather than by design.
Mr. Trump's approach to foreign affairs is the mirror image of Teddy Roosevelt's. TR said "Talk softly and carry a big stick." In other words, there should be no bluster, no incitement, but there should be a preparedness to use force when needed, a lot of it. Mr. Trump believes in boasting, inciting and hectoring at every opportunity. His is a Twitter presidency. At the same time, he has no stomach for strategic thinking, nor for employing violence in response to violence (e.g., Iran sooting down a US drone recently). Instead, he tried to get the Iranian president to talk to him. Mr. Trump believes in talking as loudly as possible and carrying a toy gun.
John Bolton was a cross between the two. He believes in shooting from the lip and the hip, usually at the same time. So long as there is shooting, he's happy. The idea of war with Iran does not bother him in the least. The US has failed to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan after 19 years, and Iraq remains a mess after 16 years of American "help." But Mr. Bolton figures what's one more war? The people won't even notice.
By ridding himself of Mr. Bolton, Mr. Trump was freed from the one thing he may hate more that Barack Obama, namely someone who contradicts him. Mr. O'Brien is a traditional Republican in foreign policy, but that is closer to Mr. Trump's "Let's Make a Deal" approach to matters than the war-first view of Mr. Bolton. Mr. O'Brien, like his natural ally Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, starts from the premise that diplomacy is useful and talking is helpful.
Mr. Trump, more than anything else, wants to be seen as a great negotiator and deal-maker. He wants to do this on the world stage where everyone will have to acknowledge his brilliance at the negotiating table. A Nobel Peace Prize is his Holy Grail.
The trouble is he is a lousy negotiator. His bankrupt businesses attest to that. He has given away the store to Russia and North Korea in exchange for nothing but a photo-op. Adversaries are getting what they want with minimal US resistance.
War, however, is not entirely out of the question. Mr. Trump remains a man who cannot take the counsel of others, who acts on impulse and who has no concern for consequences. In short, he might make an error in judgment that results in combat. Others might misread his inconsistencies and start shooting. Or he might decide that a news cycle would benefit from some rockets' red glare.
With Mr, Bolton gone, the odds on peace have improved, but the odds are not long enough yet to suit this journal.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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