No Majority

14 October 2019

 

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

Queen's Speech is Pre-Election Fantasy

 

The Houses of Parliament resumed their duties today after being prorogued last week. As with every new session, Her Majesty delivered a speech in Lords outlining the new program of the government. Apparently, it's a new session, and a new dawn for Britain. At least, it is in the imagination of Prime Minister Boris Johnson. His 26 pieces of legislation are ambitious and would be difficult to pass if he had a majority. He does not. In fact, the debate on the Queen's Speech may end in a vote rejecting it. In truth, the whole exercise is a fantasy before a general election is called after October 31.

The PM proposes no fewer than seven bills related to criminal justice, including longer prison sentences for some, and a new domestic violence bill. The get-tough-on-crime resonates with the Tory base, and it's no surprise this is a major part of the government's program.

He further proposes: an independent investigative body for the NHS, reform of divorce laws to reduce the impact of family breakdown on kids; reforms to make sure wait staff in restaurants get all their tips; reforms to social care for adults; changes to the railway franchising system; ID requirements to address the non-existant voter fraud in elections; tightening of environmental regulations; and a ban on trophy hunting.

The PM told Commons as the debate opened, "At the heart of this speech is an ambitious programme to unite this country with energy, optimism and with the basic common sense of one-nation Conservatism."

In fact, the heart of the speech was Brexit. No fewer than seven of the bills proposed relate to Brexit in one way or another. Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC put it perfectly, "In many ways, it's a Queen's Speech from a parallel universe -- one in which Boris Johnson gets his way. Where he definitely gets his deal with Brussels by the end of this week, he definitely gets it through Parliament on Saturday and definitely gets all the Brexit legislation passed. It's also a world in which he definitely gets the general election he wants in the next few weeks and then definitely gets a Conservative majority."

The only problem is that none of this is definite. Talks in Brussels don't seem to be making any headway. There is no majority in Commons for any Brexit proposal. The general election that lies ahead is likely to see more seats for Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and others than it is a Tory majority.

Brexit is 17 days away, but the Benn Act demands that the UK get an extension if there is no deal by October 19. That's Saturday. The question is whether Mr. Johnson will defy the Act and keep his word to get out of the EU by Halloween with or without an agreement. If there is an extension, one can expect a general election. If there is not, and if there is no deal, a massive constitutional crisis will follow.

The frustrating thing about the current political situation is that all sides are hoping the facts will change before the clock runs out. That is not leadership. It is the opposite of leadership. Britain is in deep trouble, and the political class has failed.

Nevertheless, Her Majesty delivered the speech well, and that is the best one can say of it.

© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.


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