Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
DUP Won't Back New Brexit Deal
Boris Johnson was taking a premature victory lap a few hours ago on Twitter. He tweeted, "We've got a great new deal that takes back control -- now parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment." He has conceded a border, it appears, between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK rather than submit to the Irish Backstop idea. The trouble is that the Democratic Unionist Party, which supports the Conservative government on a confidence-and-supply basis, refuses to accept this. It is, in fact, diametrically opposed to Unionism. One expects this deal to meet the same fate in Commons as Theresa May's agreement, that is, rejection.
According to the BBC, the main changes are: "Northern Ireland will be aligned to the EU single market; the controversial "backstop" -- that critics feared could have kept the UK in a customs union with the EU indefinitely -- has been removed; Northern Ireland will instead remain a part of the UK's customs territory, so it will be included in any future trade deals struck by the government after Brexit; but Northern Ireland will also remain an entry point into the EU's customs zone. The UK will apply tariffs to products entering Northern Ireland as long as they are not destined for onward transportation across the border; a joint EU/UK committee will decide which goods are at risk of entering the single market and the UK will collect EU tariffs on them on behalf of the EU; the Northern Ireland Assembly - which has been suspended since January 2017 -- will get a vote every four years on whether to continue with the new trading arrangements; the decision would be based on a simple majority, rather than requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists to support the rules in order for them to pass."
The EU institutions will probably rubber stamp this agreement quickly. The tricky part, as it has been for years, is the House of Commons. Prime Minister Johnson does not have a majority without the DUP. Moreover, there are numerous Tory MPs who won't back a deal if the DUP won't. And the DUP said in a statement, "All goods would be subject to a customs check regime regardless of their final destination," the statement added, and the plan for a joint EU/UK committee would give the EU a 'veto' on which goods would be exempt from tariffs or not. This is not acceptable within the internal borders of the United Kingdom."
Meanwhile, Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn said, "From what we know, it seems the prime minister has negotiated an even worse deal than Theresa May's, which was overwhelmingly rejected . . . . This sell-out deal won't bring the country together and should be rejected. The best way to get Brexit sorted is to give the people the final say in a public vote."
The Liberal Democrats are solidly pro-Remain, as are the Scottish Nationalists and Plaid Cymru, their Welsh counterparts. So, where is a majority to back this deal?
Mr. Johnson is gambling that the DUP will cave in. He may have to offer money in the billions or other sweeteners in the next couple of days, but without the DUP, he has no deal. Everyone knows it. The question is, when the MPs go through the division lobbies on Saturday to approve or reject the agreement, will the DUP have secured a price it can accept? As things stand, it's not going to be a close call.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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