Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Brexit Party Won't Fight Tory Held Seats
The Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage has just announced that his crew won't stand against incumbent Conservative MPs and will focus its energies on winning Labour-held seats. This is a wise political move for the Brexit Party in particular and the Leave camp in general. With a hung parliament a probable outcome otherwise, this move will almost ensure a Leave majority in the House of Commons. Whether the Tories have a majority is another matter, but it is secondary to the Brexit question. The value of the move is increased by the inability of Labour to come to grips with the idea that this election is all about Brexit regardless of their wishes or of what the voters on the doorstep are saying.
Mr. Farage may be many unpleasant things but innumerate he is not. In many constituencies, splitting the Leave vote between the Tories and Brexit would result in the election of a Liberal Democrat, the most Remain-committed party in England. Mr. Farage tried to get a formal electoral pact with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, but the PM declined. Consequently, this amounts to a unilateral pact, giving the Tories a pass on 317 seats. That isn't a majority, but it is a very good start.
This has not gone down well with some Brexit Party candidates, especially those who were fighting Tory-held constituencies. Wayne Bayley was the Brexit candidate for Crawley, held by Conservative Henry Smith. Mr. Bayley has said on Twitter that he will keep up the struggle as an Independent Brexit candidate. "I will NOT be standing down due to some dodgy backroom deal. I will be standing as an Independent Brexit Party candidate. The Conservatives are proven to not be able to deliver Brexit." He also tweeted, "Fuck your election strategy and Fuck Boris." Nevertheless, the Brexit Party won't be putting resources into such races, and that can only aid the Conservatives.
The effect, however, should also be blunted in some constituencies by a Remain alliance among the LibDems, Plaid Cymru and Greens. The Independent notes, "Under the agreement the Greens will get a free run in 10 seats, the Lib Dems in 43, and Plaid Cymru in 7. But there are good reasons to be sceptical as to whether this is really a 'remain alliance'. The biggest one is that many of the seats targeted are held by strongly remain-supporting Labour MPs."
That is correct, but it begs the question of whether Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is a Remain party. The same blog post on the Independent site also says, "Lib Dem President Sal Brinton said on Thursday morning that Labour wasn't included in the pact because 'Corbyn stands for Brexit and this is about Remain'. Labour supports a Final Say referendum, though the opposition party is adamant that it is not a 'remain party' and merely want to offer the public a choice."
The one flaw with every electoral pact is the voter. That fellow doesn't always do what the party strategists want him to do. Sometimes, he follows the logic of the pact. Other times, he takes offense at having his choices limited in this way and stays home. And on other occasions, that sense of offense is so great, he decides to vote exactly opposite to the way the parties want.
There are 650 seats up for grabs, so an absolute majority is 326. When the Speaker and his deputies are removed from the equation as they do not customarily vote, a majority is 324. Then one must remove Sinn Fein's seats from the calculations because they don't take their seats (but will take expenses) as they won't swear loyalty to the Crown. In the last Parliament, the party had 7 seats, and this time around it should be in that realm. That would make a working majority somewhere between 320 and 322. This means the Tories would still have to pick up a few seats even if they keep all 317 seats they had last time.
Before the Brexit Party announcement, the Sun had the betting odds as follows, "Ladbrokes put the Conservatives holding on to power at 1/7 and Labour securing a majority 5/1. Labour could come out on top with odds at 5/1 and the Conservatives could win it with 1/6. Meanwhile, William Hill puts a Conservative Majority at 11/10, a Labour Majority at 12/1 and No Overall Majority at 10/11." This journal believes the odds on a Tory majority have shortened.
© Copyright 2019 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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