Eventually a Pandemic

23 January 2020

 

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

China Closes off Coronavirus Cities

 

A rather nasty outbreak of a coronavirus has taken place in Wuhan, China. As of 10 am local time (2:00 am GMT), all flights, ferries and local trains into the city ended. The government admits to 630 infected patients of whom 17 have died. In 2003 when China experienced an outbreak of SARS, the government reacted much as it is now, underplaying the severity of the outbreak and overplaying their ability to control the disease. This probably won't grow into a worldwide pandemic, but someday, the kinds of reactions the world sees from the Chinese government almost guarantees one.

Wuhan, a city of 11 million, is not alone in this lockdown. Huanggang, a nearby city of 7 million has stopped all flights and trains. Ezhou to the south of Wuhan has closed its train stations, certain transport links from Xiantao are cut, and Chibi is placing restrictions on travel as this is posted.

The timing could not be much worse. Lunar New Year falls on Saturday, and that traditionally results in masses of people going back to their home towns. The exodus is so great that it exceeds the number of people who travel to Mecca for the Haj. Yesterday, 300,000 left Wuhan by train to all corners of the country to enjoy the celebrations. The post from Wuhan Railway announcing this was taken down quickly. It doesn't change the fact that those people, each of whom is at risk of being infected already, will travel far from Wuhan and cough on others. Cases have already turned up in Singapore, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia and the US.

The Chinese authorities have a legitimate concern in not wishing to cause a panic. That is always something to avoid. However, playing down the risks until so late in the game has created the worst of both worlds. With tens of millions unable to leave their cities, the government statements that there was little reason to worry undermine its credibility for future action. Moreover, it has done nothing to prevent anxiety which can lead to panic.

The Washington Post reports, "Although local authorities said they had enough food for residents and medical supplies to treat patients, Wuhan residents posted photos on social media showing empty shelves in grocery stores. Prices of fresh fruit and vegetables have spiked, with cabbages selling for double the usual amount.

"Wuhan authorities have ordered residents to wear masks in public places, but the People's Daily, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party, posted on social media that the province was short of masks and protective clothing. The post, which was widely shared, was soon deleted."

The South China Morning Post reported, "Li Bin, director of the top-level government health body, said on Wednesday that prevention and control of the outbreak had reached a 'most critical stage', adding that there was a risk of the virus mutating and spreading further during the country's annual peak travel period over Lunar New Year."

The Centers for Disease Control offered this information: "There are currently no vaccines available to protect you against human coronavirus infection . . . . There are no specific treatments for illnesses caused by human coronaviruses. Most people with common human coronavirus illness will recover on their own." And some won't.

Meanwhile, the Chinese reaction to this outbreak is the same as that for SARS. President Xi may well see his position weakened as the disease spreads.

© Copyright 2020 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.


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