Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Voting by Mail is the New Normal
Voting in person has been the norm in America for years, but there has almost always been a provision for those unable to turn up at the polling booth to cast a ballot that counts. In recent years, some states, particularly in the western part of the US, have moved from the expense and inconvenience of in-person voting to running their elections by mail. Mr. Trump has tried to make a distinction between absentee voting (how he casts his ballot) and voting by mail (a term interchangeable with absentee voting). He believes that high turnout favors Democrats, and mail makes voting easier and, hence, favors his opponents. He is demonstrably wrong (as usual), but voting by mail does change campaign strategy.
In the past, voting in person was almost universal. Counting provisional votes and absentee ballots was done more to honor the idea of voting rather than to determine the outcome of the election. The margin of victory was almost always bigger than the unusual ballots. This meant that Get Out the Vote (GOTV) efforts focused on the last 48 hours of the race.
With voting by mail, and in-person early voting, the GOTV sprint has become more of a marathon. In Oregon, ballots are sent out to voters 2-3 weeks before polling day. There is nothing stopping a voter from casting a ballot on October 20 as opposed to the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Thus, last minute revelations (October Surprises) have less of an impact. Moreover, campaigns work hard to get their voters to get their ballots in early, known in the business as banking votes. The more decided voters who cast a ballot early, the more the campaign can focus on the undecided.
The historical record proves that there is no real advantage to either party when it comes to postal voting. The Democrats have excelled at early in-person while the GOP has had excellent absentee outreach over the years. That is, however, is the party taking advantage of the rules. The rules themselves are neutral.
Voting by mail has several advantages over in-person balloting. It is cheaper. The voter has more time to fill in the ballot, thus reducing accidentally spoiled ballots. Voter intimidation is much more difficult.
There biggest disadantage is the speed; counting postal votes usually takes longer. Not knowing who won the election the night of the election is annoying, but it is also a rather recent development in the history of the American Republic. Until the telegraph, it was impossible to know on the East Coast who carried California. It is for this reason that the general election is in November but the electors don't vote until December. It took time to count the votes. It will take time again.
Voting by mail is going to be replaced eventually by internet-based voting in the next decade or so. Estonia has already managed to hold its elections on-line. Such voting has the advantages of voting by mail, and the result is known almost instantaneously. Until then, however, voting by mail will spread.
© Copyright 2020 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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