Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Pro-Independence Scots Benefitting from Voting System
This journal predicted at the end of last year that the Scottish National Party would be returned to power after the May 6 elections for the Scottish Parliament. Since then, polling and the launch of a new pro-independence party (Alba led by former SNP boss Alex Salmond) suggest that there will be an over-all majority favoring independence. To understand how this will likely happen, one must understand the electoral system in Scotland. The pro-independence parties are using it to their advantage.
The Scottish Parliament has 129 elected members. Of that, 73 MSPs are elected in single-member constituencies using first-past-the-post vote counting. That is, every constituency has a single MSP, and the candidate with the most votes (a simple plurality) is elected. Because that can create legislatures that are out of line with the voting intentions of the population, another 56 are elected by proportional representation using a regional list.
To illustrate, suppose a party winning 10% of the vote won 6 constituency seats. Because 10% of the vote would translate to 13 seats, the party in question would get 7 more seats from the regional list. This is something of an over-simplification, but for the purposes of this discussion, greater complexity is unnecessary.
In the last election, the SNP got 59 constituency seats and just 4 list seats. Meanwhile, the second-place Tories took 7 constituency seats, topped up by 24 list seats. Labour had 3 and 21. The LibDems 4 and 1. The pro-independence Greens had no constituency seats and won 6 on the lists. This last point is the key to the next election.
Based on current polling, the SNP has support from 49.4% of the electorate based on the average of the last 10 national polls. That would result in something just shy of the 65 seats needed for a majority. Most of these seats will be constituency seats, meaning that the SNP will win very few list seats (mirroring the last election).
The Greens are polling in the 8-11% range in the most recent polls, giving them something like 10 seats over all, with most being regional list seats. Meanwhile, Alba looks like it is polling around 3-6%. The most recent polls from Survation and Panelbase suggest that the Green voter and the Alba voter are much the same. That is, they are more likely to back each other than any other party. So the question is whether Alba cannibalizes votes from the Greens or whether it can expand its vote by adding new voters. But the interesting thing is that Alba will not put up candidates in the constituencies, giving the SNP a clear shot at most of the nationalist constituency seats. It is relying on top up seats.
The rationale for Alba to exist is rather difficult to determine. Gaming the system for a pro-independence majority does require a second pro-independence party under current circumstances, but the Greens already serve that role. The difference between the manifesto of the SNP and the promises of Alba is hard to see. The real difference is a matter of personalities. Past leader Alex Salmond and current First Minister Nicola Sturgeon have been feuding for quite a while. Alba appears to be a way for a few Salmond supporters, and the man himself, to get elected.
When it comes to counting votes, the current Panelbase poll would see 79 pro-independence MSPs while the Survation one puts the number at 77. In either case, it is a solid majority. The Boris Johnson government has said that it will not allow another referendum on independence, claiming the matter is settled for at least a generation. A very large majority at Holyrood will say otherwise. Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and English and Welsh votes dragged it out, changing the nature of the UK.
Just as the damage Brexit is doing begins to bite, and as the government is still working on vaccinating the whole of the UK, the Scots are going to put independence back on the front burner. Their electoral system will ensure it because the parties involved know how to play the game.
Britain's constitutional crisis continues.
© Copyright 2021 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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