Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Turkey Drops NATO Veto for Finland, Sweden
NATO summits can be huge non-events. The leaders of the world\\'s biggest military alliance sometimes turn up to meet for no other reason than that it was on the schedule. This week, the summit is very different. Finland and Sweden have asked to join the alliance, and Turkey was holding those requests up due to the Finns and the Swedes giving asylum to certain Kurdish activists whome Ankara calls terrorists. The three nations signed a joint declaration yesterday that effectively drops the Turkish objects in exchange for some help with extradition of wanted persons and an end to support for a Kurdish group that Ankara says is a terrorist organization. The settlement was inevitable; Turkish President Erdogan just needed a fig leaf.
The Turks took the view that the Kurdish resistance, the PKK, would not be allowed to operate from the two applicants. "The PKK will be on our agenda in my bilateral meetings. We will explain our position to Sweden and Finland once again. The PKK should be prevented from acting in these countries," President Erdogan said a couple days ago, adding, "If they are to become a member of NATO, they have to address Turkey\'s security concerns. We do not want dry words, we want results."
He got results. "I\\'m pleased to announce that we now have an agreement that paves the way for Finland and Sweden to join NATO," the secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, said Tuesday evening. "Turkey, Finland and Sweden have signed a memorandum that addresses Turkey\'s concerns, including around arms exports, and the fight against terrorism."
The Swedes and the Finns are stable democracies with strong militaries. Unlike some NATO members who joined with the fall of the USSR, these Nordic nations are an immediate net positive. They add something like 35,000 active duty troops to the NATO order of battle. They have weapons industries that can increase NATO ammunition and supply capacities. Above all, they complicate Russian strategic planning because there is a now a new 800-mile border that must be defended in the sub-Arctic. This is further compounded by the fact that the Baltic Sea is now a NATO lake. Russia really only has access via St. Petersburg and the vulnerable enclave of Kaliningrad.
The Russian response was predictable. Some bluster and some fussing prefaced what is quiet acceptance of the inevitable. Back in May, President Putin said "What that [response] will be -- we will see what threats are created for us. Problems are being created for no reason at all. We shall react accordingly."
Yesterday, his tune was different, "As to enlargement [of NATO], Russia has no problem with these states -- none. And so in a sense, there is no immediate threat to Russia from an expansion [of NATO] to include these countries." He did go on to say that if NATO boosted its military infrastructure in those two countries, there would be a Russian response. One expect acquiescence to be the response as there is not much Russia can do. Even moving some troops up to the Murmansk area would mean reducing troop levels in Ukraine.
The two applicants still have to win the approval of the 30 legislatures in the current existing member nations. There should not be much difficulty there. Turkey was the big problem, and it appears that it the case no longer. One might expect a little grumbling here and there from opposition parties, but it is hard to envision a single member vetoing the applications at this stage.
Another own-goal for Mr. Putin.
© Copyright 2022 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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