Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Scotland May Vote on Independence Again
If the Scottish National Party has its way, Scotland will go to the polls October 19, 2023, to vote on whether to remain a part of the United Kingdom or become an independent state. The referendum needs the approval of the Parliament in Westminster to be perfectly legal, but the SNP is also appealing to the Supreme Court of the UK. If neither route pans out, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said the next election will be fought on the issue of independence, and if the SNP wins, she will declare independence. It would be best for Mr. Johnson in Number 10 to allow the vote. If it fails, the SNP is finished.
At first blush, this looks like a repeat of the 2014 plebescite in which the Scots voted to stay. Just nine years later, another such vote seems premature. However, there has been a substantive change. The UK that Scots voted to remain part of was a member of the EU. The UK has since Brexited from the EU, despite Scotland voting to stay. In international law, the words are rebus sic stantibus. More colloquially, circumstances have changed so the old deal does not apply.
The Scottish Tory leader said his party would not play "Nicola Sturgeon\'s games, we won\'t take part in a pretend poll." Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said "Scotland deserves better" and that two thirds of Scots do not want indyref2. Scottish Lib Dem leader Alex Cole-Hamilton accused the first minister of an "appalling waste of energy and focus." Clearly, they should let the referendum happen because if they are right, they will win.
Defeat of a second independence referendum will mean the end of such discussions for the next generation at least. This would be a boon to all parties other than the SNP. Nat voters will no longer have independence on the line; it won\'t be an option. So why vote for a party that cannot deliver on its main objective?
Victory for the SNP would, of course, create difficulties for the UK, but the Scottish Tories, LibDems and Labourites would still have their identity and freedom to pursue their objectives in an independent country. For them, defeat is not the end of their political ambitions. For the SNP is may as well be. With that risk-reward profile, everyone should be clamoring for a referendum.
What the unionist parties need to understand for their own good is that time is not on their side. Younger Scots favor independence more than older Scots. As time goes on, unionist voters will die off. Delay is a losing strategy for them.
Since 1979, Britain has been governed by the Tories all but 13 years. Scotland in that time has never chosen the Conservative Party. Indeed, the last time the Tories held a majority of Scottish seats was 1959. The formula in Scotland is clear. The people vote for Labour, and they are ruled by Tories. Vote for the SNP, and the same thing happens. Were it not for devolution, there would be no forum in which the voice of Scots matters.
One believes that Ms. Sturgeon has the right idea, but her sense of timing is not good. Strategically, fighting the next election in 2025 on a referendum will energize her voters, making the strongest case for such a vote. A few more unionist voters will have passed on, and more anti-unionist voters will come of age.
The Conservatives in Westminster will continue to bungle things. Mr. Johnson is likely to lead the party for some time, and he is an inept boob. He is one of the best arguments for independence. Give him another 3 years, and a majority for independence becomes much more likely.
Of course, Ms. Sturgeon may believe she will lose in her struggle to get a referendum, in which case, she will have adopted this journal\'s view by default.
© Copyright 2022 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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