Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Russians Control Luhansk
The City of Lysychansk in eastern Ukraine was the last city of any size in the oblast (province) of Luhansk under Ukrainian control. Luhansk and next-door Donetsk are the two parts of Ukraine that Russia has been trying to take since 2014. With the fall of Lysychansk over the week-end, it appears that Russia controls the oblast, and Donetsk is likely to go the same way soon. That is bad for Ukraine. Losing territory, battles and above all troops is never a positive. At the same time, this is not a catastrophe for Ukraine. Their ability to defeat Russia, however that might be defined, requires them to buy as much time as they can for western weapons to reach their troops. From that perspective, the fall of Luhansk took long enough for the loss to sting much less than it could have done.
The one thing above all else that the Ukrainians wanted to avoid was a fast loss. Beyond that, stopping an encirclement of defenders in Lysychansk and other cities in the oblast was necessary to ensure that there was still a force with which to defend the rest of the country. In both of these regards, the Ukrainians met their objective.
Governor of Luhansk Serhiy Haidai made exactly the same point, telling the BBC, "Our troops have retreated to more fortified positions . . . . We held the defence of Luhansk for five months. While that defence was holding, we were building new fortifications in the Donetsk region. Now the troops have gone there."
What should give supporters of a free Ukraine hope are the different logistical situations in which Russia and Ukraine find themselves. Western intelligence believes that Russia is not capable of maintaining the rate of fire that they used during the last few weeks in taking more Ukrainian territory. Their best troops are tired, and there are shortages coming up that their hamfisted logistics efforts cannot fix easily. In other words, Russia will have a harder time as the summer progresses.
The Ukrainians are in a very different position. While it is true that they are retreating slowly, they can look forward to more and more weapons from NATO and other well-wishers as the summer passes. The BBC reported, "The longer they [the Ukainians] can delay the Russian advance, the more advanced rocket and artillery systems they can bring to the fight. US-provided HIMARS, already in action, are said to radically alter the balance of the conflict. More time means more supplies, which in turn tips the scales in their favour, especially given that sanctions mean Russia is struggling to replace its spent hardware and ammunition."
This journal is of the opinion that the Russians will call a halt to their offensive as soon as they believe all of the Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts) are under their control. That means the cities of Sloviansk (where the pro-Russian separatist movement began) and Kramatorsk will see combat next. When those fall to the Russians, Mr. Putin could announce an end to the "special military operation" that he has waged against Ukraine. One expects his troops will not be physically able to continue their westward offensive.
Ukraine may or may not continue combat operations, but there is no way at this point that President Zelinsky could formally accept the territorial losses. Either there will be a de facto cease-fire that is broken with some regularity with artillery, or the fighting will continue at a lower level of intensity than is currently the case.
© Copyright 2022 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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