Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Ukrainian Special Forces Hit Russian Base in Crimea
The Russian air base near Saky and Novofedorivka on the Crimean Peninsula suffered explosions yesterday that killed one, injured about a dozen and destroyed nine aircraft. In addition, fuel and ammunition went up in flames. The Russian Defense Ministry, at first, that nothing had happened, but satellite imaging proved that to be a lie. Their story changed to an accident. Then, the Washington Post reported that an unnamed source claimed Ukrainian special forces led the attack. The New York Times says partisans were also involved. The Ukrainian government has not claimed responsibility. The war has entered a new phase, one in which the Russians must play defence because this was no accident.
One must employ some skepticism when it comes to anonymous sources from a government at war. It is possible that there was an accident, and that the Ukrainians falsely claimed they pulled of a surprise attack. However, the probable explanation is a few special forces helped local resistance fights to pull off the assault.
The official denial from the Kyiv government is not much of a surprise. Governments involved in war do not always show their cards to the media. President Zelensky and his team do not want the Russians to know how the attack happened. If the Russians do figure it out, they have no incentive to say so. After all, such a successful assault makes the Russian military look inept. This is one of those operations that may become known in a decade or two.
President Zelensky did say, "this Russian war against Ukraine and against all of free Europe began with Crimea and must end with Crimea -- its liberation." That is a noble and amibitious statement, but the Russians will have a lot to say about it. This journal is not convinced that the Ukrainians have the wherewithal to force the Russians out. At the same time, one does believe that the Ukrainians will try.
The attack on the Crimean base is not the first such attack behind Russian lines, but it is the most dramatic. Up to now, the fighting has been a grudgingly slow and bloody withdrawal by Ukraine, retreating meter by meter. Some counter-attacks have slowed the Russians and forced them back here and there. A few more of these sorts of attacks, and the Russians will have to pull some troops out of the front lines to help hold the territory they have taken.
Already, the Russians have manpower troubles. British intelligence reports that the Russians have organized a third army group, but it is made up of men over 50 who mainly signed on for the cash bonuses being offered. Also, convicts are being given guns and their freedom if they will go and fight the Ukrainians. That will be less effective than Moscow hopes. The same thing happened in World War II, when Stalin offered the same deal. When he reneged and returned many of them to prison, they found those who stayed behind were not every forgiving. The Bitch Wars ensued in which many convicts killed one another. Memories are long in Russia, and there will not be many useful troops drawn from prisons.
The quick strikes behind the lines will continue as such a strategy is the best hope Ukraine has to halt the Russian advance. Russia claims any such attacks are provocations to greater Russian efforts. Russia has already done its worst. There is not much more it can do short of strategic bombing of Ukrainian cities. That would put Russian planes at risk in ways that makes the move too dangerous.
Mr. Putin has made a great many mistakes since he started this war, and he is likley to respond to this ineptly, if he can respond at all. This war will wind down when the autumn rains turn the land to mud. The rasputitsa stopped the Nazis, and it will stop the Russians. But it will also halt the Ukrainians. A sitzkrieg awaits.
© Copyright 2022 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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