Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Hamas, Israel Extend Ceasefire by 2 Days
There was no fighting in Gaza today because Hamas and the Israelis agreed to extend their 4-day ceasefire for a couple more days. At the humanitarian level, this was an unmitigated good. More hostages and prisoners get released, and supplies enter Gaza for the people there who depend on such aid. Politically, this is merely a conveniece for both sides. Hamas wants time to reorganize after the Israeli Defense Force pounded them for days on end. Israel wants to get as many hostages freed as it can before returning to fighting. So long as these goals are possible, the truce will hold. It does not look like it will last much longer, though.
Hamas would be more than happy to continue this truce indefinitely. They have done their violence, and they have shaken Israeli confidence to the core. They would like to get more Palestinian prisoners out of Israel jails, but they are not going to ask for so many that the Israelis lose interest in the trade in detainees. They want time above all else now.
The Hamas situation is complicated by the fact that not all the kidnapped people taken on October 7 are under the terrorist organization\'s control. There are splinter groups and rival entities that hold many. Hamas has to find a way to secure their release in their negotiations with Israel, and it is not entirely clear how many are held by non-Hamas groups. Even less clear is how many of those are in hands of people willing to make a deal through Hamas.
For the Israelis, the situation is different. They want all their people back, whether dead or alive. That is standard Israeli policy when something like this occurs. At the same time, they want to crush Hamas, and that means flattening a large part of Gaza. If they do so, they can probably give up on getting any more hostages out alive. So for them, waiting a few days is likely to be as much as they are willing to do.
Hamas also has about 70 members of the Israeli Defense Force in its control, and they are not about to give them up easily. So far, only women and those under 18 have been freed by Hamas. It is improbable to think the IDF members are going free any time soon. Holding onto them gives Hamas a little leverage against whatever military action the IDF is going to take starting in a day or so.
This short break from the war is going to end this week, unless something rather extraordinary occurs. One cannot imagine what it would take to drag this out into next week, as welcome as that might be on the humanitarian level. Israel wants to uproot Hamas and wants to do so sooner rather than later.
In addition, there is the matter of the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He is seen are the man responsible for letting down Israel. October 7 happened on his watch, and it was largely the result of his policies. He undermined the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank in favor of Hamas in Gaza in order to prevent any chance of a two-state solution to the territorial disputes in the area. He is also under indictment for abuse of power and bribery. He is less Winston Churchill here than Neville Chamberlain.
The question is when will he leave office, or more accurately, when will the political class in Israel finally decide to jettison this failure of a man. He is going to use the violence ahead to try to stay in office. Despicable as it is, that is what he will do.
Eventually, there will be another ceasefire. Hamas will be gone, but it will be replaced by something just as nasty. Mr. Netanyahu will also be gone. He will be replaced by someone on the right of the Israeli political spectrum, someone who might be just as nasty there as well.
This is what happens when people allow themselves to follow charlatans as both sides have for decades.
© Copyright 2023 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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