Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
NDP Withdraws Support for Canadian Liberal Government
The government of Justin Trudeau is a minority one. It has remained in office thanks to an agreement between the Liberal of Mr. Trudeau and the New Democratic Party led by Jagmeet Singh. This agreement, known in parliamentary democracies as a "confidence and supply" deal, means that the NDP would vote with the government when it comes to the budget and to motions of confidence. After more than two years, much of what both parties wanted to do is accomplished. Mr. Singh announced rather abruptly and with only an hour's notice to the PM that he NDP was withdrawing from the confidence and supply deal. Mr. Trudeau remains as PM, but one should expect an election soon.
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation reported:
"Today, I notified the prime minister that I have ripped up the supply-and-confidence agreement," NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced in a pre-recorded video posted online Wednesday afternoon.
The deal signed by the Liberals and New Democrats in March 2022 promised that there would be "no surprises" between the two parties. When it came time to end the deal, the government got little advance warning -- Singh emailed the prime minister about an hour before the NDP leader's message became public.
"I really hope the NDP stays focused on how we can deliver for Canadians, as we have over the last years, rather than focusing on politics," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau later told a news conference in Newfoundland, where he was announcing the first federal-provincial deal to support school nutrition programs.
The Conservatives immediately complained that it meant nothing. The CBC further noted, "[Conservative Leader Pierre] Poilievre, who days ago called on Singh to withdraw his support for the government, dismissed the NDP leader's announcement as a 'stunt' and noted that the NDP was not committed to voting to defeat the government in the House. It's safe to assume the Conservatives will test Singh by putting a vote of non-confidence before the House at the earliest opportunity this fall."
The reason for the withdrawal is not obvious. There is no major disagreement on a significant piece of legislation that is currently under consideration, nor is there a shake-up in either party that might cause tensions. Instead, Mr. Singh hasaware that his party is going to be painted as supporters of the government if he cannot get some distance between him and the Liberals, who are to the right of the NDP. The UK Liberal Democrats did not do well after being in coalition with the Tories there. It seems to be a law of political science that the junior partner in a collaborative arrangement, either with confidence and supply or in a genuine coalition, suffers more than the senior party in such a situation.
Were there to be an election today, the polls suggest the Conservatives would win with a large majority, and for the NDP, that is worse than having the Liberals in. So while the Conservatives will try to bring down the government in the next couple of months, one expects the NDP to keep Mr. Trudeau in office for a while longer. They need time to build up support.
It is a difficult dance for Mr. Singh to perform. On the one hand, he needs to show the NDP is working for Canada free from the deal he ended. On the other hand, he needs to vote with the government to prevent what would be for the NDP a premature election. It will prove a test of his mettle and his talent as a politician.
There is a small matter that the media have yet to address. Might Mr. Trudeau replace the 24 votes the NDP offered with some or all of the 32 votes the Bloc Quebecois has? On policy, this may prove impossible, but the arithmetic works. Just because one deal has been torn up does not mean another deal cannot be made.
© Copyright 2024 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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