Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Israel Attacks Lebanon, Iran Fires Missiles
The mess in the Middle East got messier yesterday as the Israeli Defense Forces crossed the border into Lebanon in an attempt to push Hebollah's missile batteries farther back. Iran finally responded to the attacks on its territory by Israeli intelligence, launching 180 missiles at Israel. Israel has vowed to retaliate despite the fact that the only fatality from the missile barrage was a resident of Gaza. If the Israelis were to respond, the all-out war no one really wants will be that much closer. De-escalation makes sense, but the Netanyahu government and the mullahs in Iran do not seem to see it that way. The next few days will determine a lot about the future.
Back in April, there was a similar missile barrage that Iran signaled was coming and that the Israelis and their allies managed to shoot down. That was considered the end of it. Having responded, Iran might be quite happy to leave things here again. They will still have the Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi proxies to carry on the low-level violence.
Israel, on the other hand, seems to think there is more to be done. Haaretz reports, "Prime Ministr Bnjamin Ntanyahu said at a security cabinet meeting overnight into Wednesday that, Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it.; He added, 'Whoever attacks us, we will attack them'."
The paper added IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi said at the conclusion of a situation assessment overnight that "We have proven our ability to prevent the enemy from securing an achievement through a combination of exemplary civilian behavior and a very strong air defense system."
Halevi added that "We will choose when [Iran will pay] the price, and prove our precise and surprising attack capabilities, in line with the government's instructions."
Ideally, the response will consist of a quick ground campaign against Hezbollah restricted to Lebanon. That is almost certainly what will not happen. Some kind of attack will take place on Iranian soil. Mr Netanyahu may well decide to take out some Iranian nuclear facilities. He could decide to bomb the oil facilities on Kharg Island. As PM, he could also command assassinations against Iranian leaders. In short, things could be bad very quickly. A lot of people would oppose any of these actions, but sadly, they are not in power.
Mr. Netanyahu has survived this first year of war, and he is intent on surviving indefinitely. This means he has to keep the region in turmoil. Having convinced many Israelis that he is Mr. Security, he wants to make sure they do not feel safe in abandoning him. If Lebanon is burning and Gaza is worse, then clearly he will keep those supporters in line.
It may even be worse than the speculation currently kicking around the newsrooms and embassies. What may be happening is a continuation of the neo-conservative idiocy in attempting to change the facts in the Middle East by force of arms. The current combat is merely an extension here of the wars from Gaza to Afghanistan since 2001.
"On July 8, 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's newly elected prime minister and the leader of its right-wing Likud Party, paid a visit to the neoconservative luminary Richard Perle in Washington, D.C.," journalist Craig Unger wrote in Vanity Fair in March 2007. "The subject of their meeting was a policy paper that Perle and other analysts had written for an Israeli-American think tank, the Institute for Advanced Strategic Political Studies. Titled ‘A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm,’ the paper contained the 'kernel of a breathtakingly radical vision for a new Middle East'." The paper suggests a war on Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to create a differently political reality.
The war in Iraq did not go well. The war in Syria is still going on. And Lebanon is the most vulnerable of the three. And Iran is running out of friends. It needs to stand up for them according to its own political logic.
The last thing the world needs is another neo-conservative crusade. But it may get one anyway.
© Copyright 2024 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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