Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
French Government Falls
The French National Assembly has passed a vote of no confidence in the government, for the first time in decades. Prime Minister Michel Barnier only got the job a few months ago, and he was not the leader of the largest bloc in the assembly. As a result, he had to resort to forcing through changes to social security by presidential decree rather than passing it in the assembly. He simply did not have the votes. That is not his fault, but rather, President Macron is to blame. He appointed Mr. Barnier after several weeks of nonsense following a snap election that may prove to have been a mistake. Now, the far right and far left both expect to lead, and thanks to a constitutional requirement, no new election can happen until next summer. The result is going to be chaos in France.
The Guardian explained, "The no-confidence motion, brought by leftist lawmakers in the national assembly, came amid a standoff over a draft austerity budget that had sought to save €60bn through spending cuts and tax rises in hopes of reducing the gaping deficit.
"Earlier this week, Barnier opted to use a constitutional measure known as article 49.3 to pass a social security financial bill. The constitutional measure allows a government to pass legislation without parliament’s approval but also gives MPs the chance to challenge that decision by presenting a no-confidence motion."
The National Rally (the current name for the neo-fascists in France) and the New Popular Front (a mix of lefties) needed 289 votes to oust Mr. Barnier, and they cast 331. Mr. Barnier will remain as a caretakers, but he will have little to do while the two biggest parties argue over policy.
When Mr. Macron does decide which politician takes on the PM's mantle, it is likely to prove a poison chalice. The fact is that no party has a majority in the assembly, and it is unclear if the smaller parties are willing to work with the fascists or the reds. There is a genuine danger that Mr. Macron's first pick will be ousted just as ignominiously, and possibly a second, third and fourth. No nation can handle that kind of instability.
Another path would be for Mr. Macron himself to resign and force a presidential election. That is almost certainly his last choice. He wants to keep the job and knows that if he quits, he is not going to win the job back. Indeed, it is almost a certainty that the fascist Marine Le Pen would be the president, and Mr. Macron does not want that.
However, Ms. Le Pen has issues of her own. The Washington Post reported, "Le Pen is also facing the complication of a trial accusing her, and members of her party, of embezzling millions of euros of European Parliament funds. Prosecutors have sought a five-year ban on public office that would prevent her from running for president in 2027. A verdict is expected in late March."
One of the biggest issues that France has is its deficit, which Mr. Barnier tried to address. The WaPo also observed, the deficit in France is "at above 6 percent of gross domestic product, is far above the E.U.'s 3 percent guideline." In fact on Monday, yields on French bonds were higher than those of Greece, the former problem child of European finance.
Whoever is the next PM will have to address a financial deficit with little room for maneuver. Increasing taxes is not really feasible given the high rates the French already pay. Cutting spending is likely to create civil strife. The political extremes will take to the streets to protect the programs that benefit the working class. And the French do love a good riot from time to time.
One can expect strikes and protests, as well as a riot or two, before the country can have parliamentary elections that could break the logjam. The next year will be a tough one for France, and Europe, and those who love them.
© Copyright 2024 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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