Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
German Government Falls
Chancellor Olof Scholz of Germany lost a confidence vote yesterday in the Bundestag, meaning a new coalition must be negotiated or new elections called. Given the chancellor's preferences, it looks like new elections lie ahead. Unlike in most parliamentary democracies, though, this was one the chancellor wanted to lose. Indeed, it has been dubbed a kamikaze move by some. However, Mr. Scholz believes he can win more seats at the polls and hold a stronger position in future. It is a gamble one hopes he has calculated to several decimal places. Otherwise, a far-right-influenced government in Germany is a distinct possibility.
The way the German constitution lays it out, the motion is a vote of confidence in the government. So, if the government is to stay in power, the "yes" votes must prevail. NPR reported, "In the Bundestag, 394 members voted no, 207 voted yes and 116 abstained. For the vote of confidence to have been successful, it would have required 367 yes votes."
The coalition of the Social Democrats (whom Mr. Scholz leads), Greens and the centrist Free Democrats fell apart when the SDP and the FDP could not agree on revitalizing a stagnant German economy. The FDP did not want to drive up the deficit and debt farther, while the SDP believes it would be a wise investment. It came down to a dispute over austerity or more borrowing. Mr. Scholz has decided to go to the nation and find out what Germans want to do.
As things appear now, they will want someone other than him implementing whatever plan comes. The New York Times noted, "Mr. Scholz will have to fight hard to persuade voters to give him another chance. For now, it is Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservative Christian Democratic Union party and a longtime figure on the political stage, who is widely expected to be the next chancellor, given his party's strong lead in polls."
The way the German political landscape looks today, there are 7 or 8 parties that will have seats in the Bundestag after the next elections, likely on February 23. In all probability, that means that some kind of coalition will be necessary. That is not, in and of itself, a problem. Where it gets uncomfortable is if the Alternativ fur Deutschland (a neo-Nazi group) wins enough seats to force its way into government.
The NYT observed, "All the mainstream parties have said they would refuse to team up with the far-right Alternative for Germany, parts of which are being monitored as a threat to the Constitution by the domestic security services. Nonetheless, the party -- which is known as the AfD and is polling at about 18 percent -- appears to be gaining ground."
It should not be hard to find a working majority without resorting to the AfD as a partner. However, parliamentary arithmetic makes for strange bedfellows. One cannot know how many seats the AfD can take until the votes are counted. By then, it is too late.
On the left, there is a faction called Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW by its German initials), led by Sahra Wagenknecht. That is never a good sign, a personal vehicle in politics. She is a former communist and has some anti-immigrant and pro-Russia ideas. Some are calling her a bulwark against the AfD, but one should not believe it. The “left conservatism” she offers is simply the AfD policies without the jackboots. She is not a defender of the German constitution but is rather a wannabe Quisling aching to line up under Mr. Putin. Her support is nothing like the AfD's, and one cannot bet on her taking many votes from them. Instead, she may hurt the more mainstream left at the polls.
Germany will then need weeks or months to settle on who the next government is. Stability in the center of Europe is in short supply and will stay that way for some time.
© Copyright 2024 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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