Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trudeau Quits
Justin Trudeau called it quits on his 9-year-long premiership in Canada yesterday. He has resigned as leader of the Liberal Party and will depart 24 Sussex Gardens in Ottawa when the new leader is chosen. The loss of support from the New Democratic Party which kept his minority-government running and the infighting within the Liberals was rather predictable. As the years go by, support naturally erodes; people get sick of their leaders, even good ones. His time in office will be remembered as a significant one, but that is far off in the future. Right now, it looks like Canadians are saying "good riddance" to him. The Liberals will be crushed in the upcoming election, but it probably will not be a Kim Campbell sized disaster where her Progressive Conservatives went from governing to having just 2 seats.
Some south of the border are claiming that his departure is the direct result of Donald Trump winning election in the States and the difficulty the two have in their relationship. The tariffs the felon if demanding could hurt Canada, and he is petty enough to punish a whole country because the leader was not nice to him. Yet, Mr. Trudeau was on his way out before then.
The real straw that broke the camels back was the announcement in September from the New Democratic Party that they were ending their confidence-and-supply support for Mr. Trudeau. That effectively meant that the opposition had the majority and could bring down the government any time they wanted. One gets the feeling the NDP was biding its time, waiting for an opportune time to strike.
The Trump tariffs did not help, as they convinced some in his inner circle of party leaders to abandon him. The BBC reported, "In a public resignation letter, Freeland cited US President-elect Donald Trump's threats of tariffs on Canadian goods, and accused Trudeau of not doing enough to address the 'grave challenge' posed by Trump's proposals."
The Conservative opposition was thrilled.
The Beeb also said,
Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said "nothing has changed" following Trudeau's resignation.
"Every Liberal MP and Leadership contender supported EVERYTHING Trudeau did for 9 years, and now they want to trick voters by swapping in another Liberal face to keep ripping off Canadians for another 4 years, just like Justin," Poilievre wrote on X.
Eric Grenier compiled an average of polls in Canada and came up with results that make the right excited. The Conservatives have 44.2% support, the Liberals 20.1%, the NDP 19.3%, Bloc Quebecois 8.5% (Francophone nationalists), Greens 4.1%, People's Party (far right) 2.4% and others 1,4%. Since Canada uses a first-past-the-post vote counting system, it is entirely conceivable that the Conservatives take office with a big majority of seats after the next election.
The timing of this is still a bit hard to pin down. By law, the next election is due in October. Parliament will reconvene in March, and unless Mr. Trudeau goes to the Governor-General to ask for a dissolution, nothing can happen until then. At that point, the House of Commons will probably vote to bring down the government after a new Liberal Leader and PM takes over.
Once the government has lost the confidence vote or has voluntarily resigned and ask the Governor-General for a dissolution, the campaign takes 37-51 days. After a glance at the calendar, it is clear that the general election is probably going to be in May. If a week is a long time in politics, five months is a geological epoch. The Liberals could pick up a few points in the polls, and the Conservatives could self-destruct. This journal could also win a Pulitzer, and the idea is equally realistic.
The next Canadian PM will be Mr. Poilievre with a majority.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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