Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Gaza Ceasefire is Shaky
Hamas and the Israelis have agreed to a ceasefire after more than a year of pointless violence. Tens of thousands are dead, probably more injured and countless lives are ruined. What is most depressing is that this ceasefire may not hold. The way it is arranged, six weeks from now, it could all start again. While many have noted the sea change of power that has occurred in the region to the benefit of Israel (mainly the collapse of Iranian proxies), the nub of the problem has simply grown worse. The Palestinians and the Israelis hate one another more than ever. Making peace now between the two sides is harder than at any time in this century.
The ceasefire will come in three stages starting Sunday, presuming the Israeli cabinet approves (it likely will after some fussing from the ridiculous right). The first stage is the easy one. It lasts for six weeks (until March 2), and it is largely focused on exchanging prisoners/hostages. The outside world is supposed to flood Gaza with humanitarian aid, and the Israeli military is to withdraw from all populated areas of Gaza.
The second stage is probably where this all falls apart, if not in 42 day perhaps in 42 weeks. It calls for a "permanent end to the war" according to President Biden. A final batch of hostages/prisoners will go free, and all Israeli troops will leave Gaza. It is this final point that one expects to be the crucial factor. The IDF will leave if ordered to do so, but will the Netanyahu government give that order if there is even a whiff of suspicion that another attack of any kind is coming. It does not have to be anything as awful and dramatic as the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023. A single car bomb or sniper would be all the reason the Israelis need to delay withdrawal. Since no one really controls Gaza, there is every chance someone will not lay down his arms as required.
Third and final, the last stage is the return of hostage corpses and rebuilding of Gaza. The latter will take years, and there is some dispute over who is going to benefit most from this. The ridiculous right in the Netanyahu government is eyeing Gaza for settlement by Israelis. If they choose to make an issue of this, the Palestinians are going to take the view that the deal is off, and that means the war can be back on.
This journal would like to see everyone in the region wise up and stop killing each other (as well as on the rest of the planet). Hatred, though, has a nasty habit of sticking around, and after the last 15 months, there is little hope of the hatred going away any time soon. In general, there is not much room for long-term optimism despite what everyone is saying.
In the short-term, one should celebrate the first stage entering into force. For the next six weeks, most people in the area will not be attacked with live munitions. That is a reason not only to be cheerful but outright ecstatic. They will be living in a hellscape, but the kids will get food and medicine. Moms and dads can sleep a little less restlessly knowing they will probably wake up to find their children still alive.
While the short-term relief faces long-term clouds, there is one thing that could keep the worst from happening. In diplomacy, there is such a thing as momentum. Right now, the momentum is running in favor of peace and cooperation, at least on such things as trading captives. Small points of progress can often lead to bigger milestones being reached. Someone just has to be brave enough to try peace in a region that has historically been led by cowards who take solace in violence.
February promises to be a good month for the Middle East. After that, all bets are off.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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