Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Russia Rejects Short-Term Ceasefire
The progress many saw with Ukraine accepting the American proposal for a 30-day cease fire in the Russian War of Aggression against Ukraine proved ephemeral. As predicted in this journal, the Russians have decided to play for time. They have rejected the American plan because they claim to prefer a long-term and more permanent solution. This means that the talks, such as they have been so far, appear to have reached an impasse. Ukraine is onboard with the American idea, but Russia has decided to wide the discussion, thereby slowing it down to a full halt. The only question now is what Mr. Trump will do about it.
The Telegraph reported,
Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's top foreign policy adviser, said that a 30-day truce to pause the war was a "hasty step" that "is not in favour of a long-term settlement."
"I have stated our position that this is nothing other than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more," he told Russian state media, adding that Russia is not interested in "any steps that imitate peaceful actions".
Russia has taken the opportunity to tell America of its war aims. Reuters is reporting that these include "no Nato membership for Kyiv, an agreement not to deploy foreign troops in Ukraine and international recognition of Crimea and four Ukrainian provinces as Russian territory."
This is a non-starter, of course, because it offers Kyiv no security guarantees. The Russians can claim to have made their final territorial demand in Europe, but like the Nazis at Munich, it will not be. The territory seized in 2014 including Crimea was supposed to have ended the matter. It clearly did not. Russia cannot be trusted to keep the peace without someone else enforcing it.
Russia, of course, knows that, and plans to press for a neutered Ukraine until the end of time. Mr. Putin has invested too much personal political capital in this stupid war to be flexible just yet. He needs to spend the summer fighting season not making any progress if he is to be brought to the peace table. As of this moment, he sees an opportunity to make bigger gains by military force. He is too much of a Chekist to resist that chance.
The view from Washington is unclear at best. Mr. Trump has been outmaneuvered by both the Ukrainians and the Russians. The Ukrainian accepted his proposal, and in so doing, avoided all the pressure they might have faced. Meanwhile, Russia has said it is not interested in this deal, and the Americans do not have much in the way of leverage here. Russia is already under significant economic sanctions. The US imported $4.57 billion worth of Russian goods in 2023, the last year for which data are available. That is not much to do anything with.
Mr. Trump made a big deal out of telling President Zelensky that the latter has no cards to play in this game. Mr. Zelensky rightly pointed out that this is not a game. All the same, it is Mr. Trump who now has not cards to play. He went crazy in pressuring Mr. Zelensky, and when it came time to deliver Russia to the negotiating table, he failed. He has no way to pressure Mr. Putin short of helping Mr. Zelensky. It is hard to see Mr. Trump going down that route given his status as a Russian asset.
The long and short of it is the war will go on. The talks about talks will prove a waste of time. The only thing that has really changed is that the Trump administration has rendered itself largely irrelevant to the entire situation. The powerlessness of the American president is on full display. As he barks and growls to try to attract attention, he merely demonstrates how bad he is at negotiating.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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