Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Russia Weasels out of Black Sea Ceasefire
The news about discussions in Saudi Arabia regarding peace between Russia and Ukraine was wonderful for a few minutes yesterday. The Ukrainians and the Russians had agreed to a ceasefire between the two in the Black Sea. Russia has not done well there, with the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet resting on the bottom. One would think that a partial ceasefire could lead to a total truce. Then, the Russians delivered the fine print. They would only implement the deal when various western sanctions are lifted. Let the killing continue was the only interpretation.
This would not be the first agreement between Kyiv and Moscow regarding the Black Sea. The BBC reminds that in 2022:
The "Black Sea grain deal" was put in place to allow cargo ships travelling to and from Ukraine to safely navigate without being attacked by Russia.
The deal facilitated the movement of grain, sunflower oil and other products required for food production, such as fertiliser, through the Black Sea.
It was initially in place for a period of 120 days but, after multiple extensions, Russia pulled out in July 2023, claiming key parts of the agreement had not been implemented.
President Zelensky said "It is too early to say that it will work, but these were the right meetings, the right decisions, the right steps. No-one can accuse Ukraine of not moving towards sustainable peace after this." That is a clear reference to false accusation from the White House that Ukraine was dragging its feet.
The Beeb also reported
But shortly after Washington's announcement, the Kremlin said the Black Sea ceasefire would not take effect until sanctions were lifted from Russian banks, producers and exporters involved in the international food and fertiliser trades.
The measures demanded by Russia include reconnecting the banks concerned to the Swift payment system, lifting restrictions on servicing ships under the Russian flag involved in the food trade, and on the supply of agricultural machinery and other goods needed for the production of food.
Mr. Trump reportedly said that he was looking at the sanctions and thinking about lifting them.
This is, of course, standard Russian negotiating. One makes an agreement and then Moscow invents new conditions that no one mentioned and insists the deal hinges on them. The only response is to say that a deal is a deal and walk away from the table. Mr. Trump is ill-equipped for that. He is focused on winning a Nobel Peace Prize (mostly because Mr. Obama has one) and is convinced that brokering a peace deal will get it for him. That means he needs a deal no matter how bad or one-sided.
The Russians also know, from having been under sanctions for years, that it takes time to implement the lifting of sanctions just as much as it is needed in imposing them. They are not interested in a ceasefire of any kind unless it allows them to gain a battlefield advantage. That is why they want an end to arms shipments to Ukraine as the price of a truce. When they do decide they want to break it, the victim will be unable to resist as Ukraine has done so far.
This journal stands by its assessment that, until the November rains bring the mud and end the 2025 campaign season, the war goes on no matter what announcements the diplomats and politicians are going to say.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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