Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Dems Take PA Senate Seat from Republicans
The general ineptitude of the Trump administration compounds bad policy with poor implementation. The result of this will be a backlash against the Republican Party and a future Congressional campaign that favors the Democrats. Such a prediction is, of course, not guaranteed to occur, but rather, that is how the odds stack up before the starting gun. One can find early signs of this already, which is a bit quick for the chickens to start coming home to roost, but the American people have been in a grumpy mood for years.
On Tuesday, there was a special election for a vacant seat in the Pennsylvanian Senate. The Democrat won in a district that has been Republican for 136 years (in its various incarnations thanks to redistricting). Democrat James Andrew Malone got 26,951 votes or 50%, while Republican Josh Parsons got 26,469 or 49.11%. Zachary Moore of the Libertarian Party secured 0.89% with 480 votes. That is a narrow margin to be sure, but when one considers that Mr. Trump carried the district by 15%, it is a disaster for the GOP. This is only two months since the end of the Biden administration. That kind of voting erosion will create Democratic majorities in many chambers if it persists.
The New York Times added:
The victory does not affect control of the state senate, where Republicans now hold a four-seat majority, though another special election, near Pittsburgh on Tuesday, gave the Democrats a one-seat majority in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The outcome of the House special election was not a surprise, but the margin of the Democratic victory there also exceeded Kamala Harris' performance in the district in 2024.
One cannot deny that the Lancaster County seat has seen demographic changes over the last decade or two. The rural voters in the district were Republican long before Mr. Trump, or even before Mr. T. Roosevelt. But as the City of Lancaster boomed, retirees and young professionals moved into the exurbs and suburbs, making the district more balanced than it was in 1990 or so. That changes does not explain the shift since November. The same voters who picked Mr. Trump rejected Mr. Parsons.
Turnout in special elections (by-elections) is almost always lower than in the preceding general election. So, one should not make much of this single datum. Even if turnout were identical, it is entirely possible that this election is an outlier that represents noise rather than a signal. Mr. Malone won his race by door-to-door campaigning (the kind that still works in smaller electorates), and his ground game will have to be replicated elsewhere if this election is not to be a mere outlier.
There was another race in the state on Tuesday. Democrat Matthew Gergely passed away in January, and the Democrats held his seat. By doing so, the Democrats have retained a one-vote margin in the state House. Had this seat gone the other way, it is hard to see anything like a trend emerging. That the Democrats held it speaks to the shift in the electoral balance.
Next week, voters in Wisconsin vote for a new Supreme court judge. Elon Musk has spent $10 million to promote the Republican candidate. The Republicans are also trying to boost their voter turnout with a referendum question about voter ID. But the GOP is still fighting an uphill battle thanks to the overall incompetence of the administration.
All of this is a lead-in for the 2026 mid-term elections. While the map favors the Republicans in the US Senate this time around, the narrow majority the GOP holds in the House is almost certain to evaporate and 2027 will start with Speaker Hakeem Jeffries. If that happens (one must presume a certain level of fairness in the election that may be unjustified), the MAGA revolution will begin to ebb. Until then, however, terminal damage to the Republic is likely.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
|
|
|
