Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trump Prepares to Surrender on China Tariffs
The White House is preparing to hoist the white flag on its trade war with China. It is currently signalling that it no longer has the stomach to continue. After the CEOs of WalMart, Home Depot and Target told the president to his face that shelves would be empty in two weeks thanks to his trade war (Forbes is the source), Mr. Trump blinked. There is now talk of reducing the ridiculous and obscene tariffs on Chinese products to levels that are merely ridiculous. The Chinese government will simply sit and wait while the administration starts making concessions. It will pocket them and ask for more. It is a diplomatic rout, and the whole world knows it.
The current level of tariffs on Chinese imports to the US is 145%. That is more than enough to render those goods unsaleable in the US market. The South China Morning Post reports that shipments from China are plummeting as their goods go to other markets. "One export company's US-bound container volume has plummeted, from 40 to 50 containers a day to just three to six "
That will naturally result in far fewer products on the shelves, and it was going to be horrible. One adminjistration official told Axios, "The big box CEOs flat out told [Trump] the prices aren’t going up, they’re steady right now, but they will go up. And this wasn’t about food, but he was told that shelves will be empty." In economic terms, the only thing worse for a consumer society than high prices is goods being unavailable at any price. When Christmas rolls around and the $300 TV from China costs $900, if there are any, the people will demand blood (metaphorically speaking).
In a speech yesterday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "I do say China is going to be a slog in terms of the negotiations. Neither side thinks the status quo is sustainable." Wall Street decided that was reason to send stocks up 1,000 points on the Dow initially befiore closing up a few hundred. As one analyst put it, "Wall Street soared on the news water is wet."
That is how an administration prepares the public for a U-turn. The administration also leaked some of its ideas as trial balloons. The Street.com stated, "One proposal involves tiered tariffs, with lower duties – around 35% – on non-strategic goods and higher rates -- up to 100% -- on items deemed critical to U.S. national security. Current China tariffs reach up to 145%.
"[A] White House official reportedly told WSJ the China tariffs could come down to between roughly 50% and 65%."
A reduction to 50% is not really a reduction that has any meaning. At 50%, trade still comes to a grinding halt. President Xi is also a much better negotiator than President Trump. He will pocket this minor concession and do nothing in return. He will wait for Mr. Trump to decide to cut tariffs to 25% or lower. And he will still do nothing while Mr. Trump continues to negotiate with himself.
One knows this because this is the track record of Mr. Xi and because the ChiComs have said so. CNN Business reported: "As the saying goes, 'He who tied the bell must untie it'," He Yadong, a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Ministry, told reporters Thursday.
"The unilateral tariff hikes were initiated by the US. If the US truly wants to resolve the issue, it should heed the rational voices of the international community and its own domestic stakeholders, fully remove all unilateral tariff measures against China, and find a way to resolve differences through equal dialogue," he added.
Mr. Trump can probably put up the White Flag over the White House now.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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