Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trump Demands "Unconditional Surrender" from Iran
The missile and drone war going on between Israel and Iran took an omninous turn yesterday when President Trump posted on his personal social media platform "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER." He also announced "we" had air superiority over the skies of Iran. For a nation that has not fired a shot in the skirmish, that is rather a lot to absorb. The White House says he is considering many options, and among those is the use of US personnel, planes and bombs directly against Iran. The president has maneuvered himself into a position where whatever he does will probably have a negative effect. He is in a lose-lose situation.
The military issue here is that Iran has buried its nuclear research and bomb production operations far underground. Israel has lots of bombs and drones but nothing that can pierce the meters of concrete and earthen protection the Iranians have built. Apparently, intelligence sources think the US can do that. The Massive Ordnance Air Blast device [MOAB, aloso called the “Mother of All Bombs] is delivered by a C-130 Hercules aircraft or a B2 bomber. It weighs about 9,600 kilograms and all but about 10% of it is H6 explosive. Israel would like the US to drop one or more on Iran.
Mr. Trump has really just three options. First, he can ignore the request. Second, he can acquiesce. Third, he could give the Israelis the bomb and let them drop it.
The first option would enrage the hawks in his party like Senator Lindsay Graham (R-SC). They are baying for the blood of the mullahs. This could divide his party at a time when his big, ugly and stupid bill is struggling through the Senate, and which will need revisions in the House again.
The second option would enrage the isolationist part of the MAGA movement, like Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene (R-GA). Many in the MAGA movement voted for no more foreign, forever wars. Bombing Iran would mark the beginning of a forever war. It would also trigger a massive wave of terrorism in the West, because that is really the only way Iran can hurt the US in a meaningful way. They will also close the Straits of Hormuz and choke off the flow of oil. That will create a global problem.
Letting the Israelis drop it has its own issues. The Iranians will not accept that the US has no responsibility for what happens, and so it is the same in their minds as the US dropping it directly. It might persuade a few allies that Mr. Trump is trying to be delicate in an indelicate situation, but no one who has boots on the ground and blood in the game will buy it. And there is some doubt as to how quickly the Israelis can learn to fly the necessary plane and drop MOAB.
As for allies, America is running low on them. Israel will love the bomb dropping, and while they may say things about it, most Arab governments will approve of weaking Iran further. The struggle between Sunni and Shi'ite is tilting to the Sunnis, like Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, there is talk, silly talk to be sure, about regime change in Tehran. Bombing people heavily almost never gets them to turn on their government. The Blitz actually stiffened British resolve. The North Vietnamese were bombed everyday for years. They did not give up. Bombing by US forces is likely to boost the popularity of the regime. But even if the Iranian people rise up, who replaces the ayatollahs? Those who remember 1979 know that the Shah was horrible and nothing could be worse, until worse happened right after he left.
In short, there are no good options. There is no path that leads to peace without a lot of violence before it happens. A leader who finds himself in that kind of situation has no one to blame but himself. Donald Trump did this to Donald Trump, and the rest of the world will pay for it one way or another.
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