Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US Bombs Iranian Nuclear Sites
Over the week-end, the US flew a bombing mission over Iran to take out its nuclear research facilities. This is a significant escalation in the conflict with Iran, and it represents a huge risk that American troops are going to wind up fighting yet another ground war in the region. The world is a ways off from that yet, but what happens next almost exclusively is up to Iran. They have three options: do nothing, retaliate now or retaliate later. This journal is wagering there may be a small reaction now, but later on, Iran will be the author of some bad things outside Iran. This will not end soon.
Tactically, this was almost a perfect training exercise. Iran has no real air defenses after shooting missiles back and forth with Israel for about 10 days, so B2 bombers and some cruise missiles were not going to face any opposition. The White House claims to have kept things quiet, but Friday morning, the press announced that B2 bombers had left Missouri for Guam. That was somewhat true. Some did go to Guam. They were a feint. But anyone paying attention should have known one does not move such assets without the intent to use them.
Where success is less clear is in the outcome of the bombing. Because these sites were very far underground, satellite imagery is not going to tell much. Yes, the bombs went off, but how much harm they did is not easy to say. Bomb damage asssessment takes time, so the US declarations that the nuclear program of Iran was obliterated or devastated or some other impressive-sounding verb is nonsense. That might be the case, but it is far too soon to have any real data.
What is troubling at this stage is the 400 kilos of uranium that Iran had enriched to 60% are not accounted for. If their storage site was hit, that spot will be dirty with radiation for a very long time. If the geigercounters are not showing a radiation incident, then where is the U235? Iran may have moved the fissile material before the attacks, and if that is the case, the job was not done. Mission not accomplished.
Back in the US, there will be a lot of arguing over whether the president over-stepped his authority (he probably did), and if so, what to do about it (nothing). The Democratic Party and some of the isolationists outside of it will complain and opine that this never should have happened, but the past cannot be changed, and this is a new political situation abroad. The Iranians will make a move, and only then will opposition matter. Right now, the White House is revelling in its glory.
Iran can do a few things. Its parliament, the Majlis, has already called for the Straits of Hormus to be be closed. That is a narrow body of what through which 20% of the world's oil flows on its way to market. Closing that will drive up oil prices and will cost Iran financially. If they do this, they are wagering that the West will suffer more, or maybe Westerners are unwilling to suffer as much as Iranians. China may be upset as that hurts them as well as the West, but one cannot be sure. Closing the straits would be a simple matter of mining the area. No Missiles or warships are really needed.
Iran has two other options that are likley under active consideration. The US has numerous bases closer to Iran that Israel is, meaning it will be easier to attack them. Of course, the US is expecting this and has its personnel on alert. Alerts, though, tend to dissipate as the expected attack fails to materialize. Iran probably would not attack with missiles or bombers anyway. It would be much easier to drive a truck bomb into the ingress of any base.
But Iran has another weapon that may find use and that is terror attacks inside the US. Some allege that Iran has sleeper cells in the US waiting for orders. Maybe. No one can deny, however, that sneaking someone into the US with a fake passport and having them buy up a Texas sporting goods store gun deparment is possible. The Department of Homeland Security has its work cut out for it.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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