Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Activity in Ukraine Diplomacy Yields Nothing
The last week has been a ridiculously active one in the diplomacy revolving around peace between Ukraine and Russia. Messrs. Trump and Putin met in Alaska on Friday, in an unmitigated disaster for the US and the West. Then yesterday, Mr. Trump hosted eight European leaders including the heads of Ukraine, France, Germany, the UK, and the EU. There, the Europeans were able to apply the brakes to the crisis Mr. Trump created on Friday. The result of all this summitry has been nothing of value. These summits could have been emails, but Mr. Trump likes ceremony and events where he can pose for the cameras. Diplomacy has been subordinated to therapy for the POTUS.
Friday in Alaska, Donald Trump walked into his meeting with Mr. Putin adamant that there needed to be a ceasefire in Ukraine that very day. Fox News reported Mr. Trump said, "I won't be happy if I walk away without some form of a ceasefire. Now, I -- I say this, and I said it from the beginning: This is really setting the table today. We're going to have another meeting, if things work out, which will be very soon, or we're not going to have any more meetings at all, maybe ever."
He walked out of the meeting a changed man. "It was determined by all that the best way to end the horrific war between Russia and Ukraine is to go directly to a Peace Agreement, which would end the war, and not a mere Ceasefire Agreement, which often times do not hold up," the president wrote on social media on Saturday.
This is nonsense, of course. Every war ends with a peace treaty preceded by a ceasefire. World War I, for example, had a ceasefire (the Armistice) on November 11, 1918. The Treaty of Versailles followed on June 28, 1919. The logic is obvious. So long as there is fighting, the facts of the dispute are not set. That is to say, peace talks would change radically if Ukraine suddenly took the Russian city of Belgorod or if the Russians took Kharkiv. When the shooting ceases, the facts are clear to all and can be discussed coherently.
Yesterday in the White House, the leaders of the main European States (joined by newcomer Finland, which has a clear-eyed view of what Russia is and has had it since at least 1939) protected President Zelensky from another abuse session from the American President. Instead, they all flattered the Orange Ego and drove home their points. Chief among them was an American commitment to guarantee the security of Ukraine.
The excitement the Europeans expressed over this is misplaced. In 1994, the US, Russia and the UK signed the Budapest Memorandum while Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the USSR. The Kennedy School says, "The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny." Renewed scrutiny is a polite way of saying the guarantees were worthless.
The fact is that an American commitment on its security should count for nothing in Ukraine. Mr. Trump may sign a deal, but in the end, he will not keep his word. One can ask a great many tradesmen whom the president has stiffed over the years. The real question is whether the Europeans can deliver where America will not. The jury is out.
The fighting continues, the discussions have set the table for nothing at all and the next summit will likely deliver the same thing the last two did -- nothing concrete and nothing useful.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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