Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US September Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4%
The September Non-Farm Payroll report was due out October 3, but because Congress and the President decided to close down the government for almost a month and a half, it only came out this morning. While the US added 119,000 jobs in September, more than expected, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3% in August. This report may not be as precise as previous ones because of the shutdown. It will require data after October and November before one can ascertain whether these are useful data. What is clear is that the negative trend in unemployment continues.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported:
Publication of September data was delayed by more than 6 weeks because of a lapse in federal appropriations. Collection of September data for the household survey had been completed in accordance with our normal schedule prior to the federal government shutdown. September estimates from the establishment survey include both data collected on our normal schedule prior to the shutdown and also September data that businesses self-reported electronically during the shutdown. As a result, the establishment survey collection rate (80.2 percent) for this initial release of September 2025 data is higher than usual.
BLS will not publish an October 2025 Employment Situation news release. Establishment survey data for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data. Household survey data were not collected for the October 2025 reference period due to a lapse in appropriations and will not be collected retroactively. For both surveys, the collection period for November 2025 data will be extended, and extra processing time will be needed. The Employment Situation news release for November 2025 is scheduled to be published on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. (ET
In other words, October is going to be of doubtful value, and November may have fewer issues but remains of questionable utility.
The Fed remains in an awkward position. Inflation is up and so is unemployment. That is the definition of stagflation. The Fed has the interest rate tool to address both of these. Raising rates will slow inflation, lowering them raises it. Lowering rates increase employment while raising them reduces it. The prescription for one, makes the other disease worse.
"I am not worried about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly," Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. "My focus is on the labor market, and after months of weakening, it is unlikely that the September jobs report later this week or any other data in the next few weeks would change my view that another cut is in order" when the Fed meets on December 9-10."
The unemployed need help and ideally jobs, but the truth is they are a small fraction of the population. Inflation affects the entire population. This journal believes the Fed rate cutting is wrong and that inflation should be the first priority. But the die has been cast, and the only question is whether to cut rates or keep them stable. One cannot find a single Fed governor who believes in raising rates at the present time.
The quality of this report is in doubt, and it has given the markets an idea of what things might be like if the administration gets away with its attempts to cook the books. When the data points on which traders make decisions do not exist, the market becomes more inefficient, and profits become more difficult to book.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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