Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Trump Loses Manufacturing Jobs, Expands Trade Deficit
As the end of the year approaches, it is appropriate that the White House be held accountable for its policies and their outcomes since the inauguration 11 months ago. One of the key promises that Mr. Trump made when he ran for the presidency was a renaissance in manufacturing jobs in the US. He ws going to slap tariffs on imports and that would spark American creativity and unleash a flood of investment that would bring thousands upon thousands of manufacturing jobs back to the American workers. Since he took office, Mr. Trump has presided over a loss of 58,000 manufactuing jobs. He has failed to deliver.
Jack Nicastro, writing in the libertarian Reason magazine, stated:
Since Trump assumed office, manufacturing employment has decreased by 58,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Novembre Employment Situation. Over the same period last year, the manufacturing sector lost 96,000 jobs; so the best Trump can tendentiously tout is a slower rate of manufacturing job loss. (As a share of total nonfarm employment, manufacturing employment decreased steadily from around 40 percent in 1943 to about 8 percent in 2010. It has hovered around there ever since.)
Mr. Nicastro observes that, as societies grow richer, their populations move from agricultural jobs to manufacturing jobs to service positions. He maintains that the decline in manufacturing jobs is a function of wealth, that it is a good thing. One can debate whether there is a causal tie, but there is certainly a correlation.
His argument is saupported by the fact that agricultural jobs have undergone a similar change. In 1900, about 40% of the US workdforce was still involved in agriculture. Today, that figure is below 2%. Where is the demand for more farm workers?
The tariffs were supposed to protect a re-launch of American manufacturing, but they were also supposed to reduce the US trade decifit with China and to reduce Chinese exports. The data there show a similar failure of policy.
The US goods trade deficit (meaning services are excluded) was $1 trillion for the nine months through September, the last month for which there are data. That trillion is $118 billion more than the same period in the prior year. When services are added in to get the overall trade deficit, one finds a $113 billion increase in the overall deficit. That part of the campaign promise remains unfulfilled.
Finally, China seems to be doing just fine despite the US folly. While one is skeptical of Chinese government figures, the trend is probably quite reliable. That is, while the overall figure may be off, the direction of changes and their magnitude is safe to use as measures of what is going on.
In the first nine months of 2025, China exported $875 billion more than it imported. That is a $185 billion increase it their goods trade surplus over the same period of 2024. Adding in the services, China is not quite as well off, as it has a $180 billion services deficit. Nevertheless, China still has a $700 billion surplus, hardly a rebalanced relationship with the US.
Mr. Trump appears to be stuck in the 1950s when manufacturing was the foundation of the American economy. He could just as easily want to go back to 1900 when 40% of Americans were in agriculture. Neither attempt at turning back the clock will work. The data have shown it cannot.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2025 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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