What Comes Next?

5 January 2026

 

Cogito Ergo Non Serviam

US Nabs Maduro in Caracas

Three days ago, Nicolas Maduro was in Caracas, Venezuela, doing the job of president. Today, he is in a New York City courtroom facing charges of conspriracy to distribute drugs and so on. The change came by way of a brilliantly executed abduction in Caracas by the CIA and US military. Those who have lived long enough know that this was probably a mistake because there seems to be no clue as to what comes next. The legitimately elected president, from whom the 2024 election was stolen, has been ignored by the White House, and the old regime is still there. Instability is the future of the region, and that is not a good thing.

This journal holds no brief for Mr. Maduro. He is a typical Marxist-Leninist who will sacrifice the entire working class to save the working class from whatever it is the working class wants that he thinks they should not have. He not only is a dictator with no legitimacy, but also he is inept at delivering for the country. Venezuela should be rich, but getting the economy on track has proved too difficult. Incompetence in governing is a sin. Removing him, as a standalone event, was unequivocally a positive.

Removing him, however, was never a standalone event. The day after is something that always comes and for which Washington is rarely prepared. Afghanistan and Iraq proved that. It seems that, despite several examples to the contrary, Washington believes that winning on the battlefield is everything. As Clausewitz noted, war is just politics by other means. Once the was is over, politics remains, and it baffles the US government.

President Trump seems to think that capturing Mr. Maduro makes Venezuela an American satellite. "Don't ask me who's in charge, because I'll give you an answer, and it'll be very controversial," he told reporters. "It means we're in charge. We're in charge."

That is not the case. The Venezuelan military and govermental apparatus is still in place. With about 63,000 active service personnel, the Venezuelan army is not about to beat the US military, but it will be able to keep the people in line, for a time at least.

The people, of course, voted in 2024 to oust the Maduro government, but now, the US is walking away from that ready-made ally. Maria Corina Machado is the leader of the opposition, and her hand-pocked candidate, Eduardo Gonzalez, won that election. The American president said she "doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect." This is a fatal mistake.

Instead, Mr Trump thinks the acting president of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, can be intimidated into taking his orders. There is little reason to think she will. While she has suggested some flexibility and offered discussions, she is a die-hard of the Maduro government.

Holding her feet to the fire are Diosdado Cabello, the Interior Minister, and Vladimir Padrino López, the country's top general. They are in charge of the guns and bombs, which means they have a veto over things. The biggest threat to stability is factionalism and internal violence in Venezuela now. The army, the militia and various armed gangs are likely to resist the US and each other.

Mr. Trump made clear that the key to his vision is control of the oil. US companies will get the industry back on its feet in the country, and the wealth that flows from that will make the place heaven on earth. If Mr. Trump were a decent businessman, he would know that no investments are coming to a place on the edge of chaos.

The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.

© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.



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