Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US, Israel Attack Iran
The US and Israel spent the week-end dropping ordnance on Iran. Iran struck back by throwing bombs, missiles and drones at just about every country in the region. This came as something of a shock in that negotiations on Thursday were going quiet well according to the Omani mediators between the US and Iran. In the attack, The US-Israeli attack killed the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several other top leaders. The US is now encouraging the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the mullahs. This is likely to end with either a hardline government reasserting its authority or with a failed state like Libya now is. What will not happen is the emergence of a more stable and open Iran.
The attack seems to have stunned many in the region because talks last week in Geneva among the US, Iranians and Omanis. Friday morning, Al Jazeera reported:
Iran agreed during indirect talks with the United States never to stockpile enriched uranium, said Oman's top diplomat, who described the development as a major breakthrough.
Oman's Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi also said on Friday that he believed all issues in a deal between Iran and the US could be resolved "amicably and comprehensively" within a few months.
"A peace deal is within our reach . . . if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there," Al Busaidi said in an interview with CBS News in Washington, DC, after Oman brokered the third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Geneva on Thursday.
It is clear that the White House simply lost patience or was negotiating in bad faith (or both). This attack had to have been planned for a while. The question now is whether the administration will pull back and offer talks or whether it will continue bombing. President Trump likes the idea of punching someone in the nose and avoiding a counter-strike by talking. It will not work this time because the Iranians do not trust him. This attack is the second time he has attacked while negotiating with Iran, the first being in June with the 12 Day War. There will not be a third opportunity if Tehran has anything to say about matters.
From a tactical spandpoint, the American and Israeli strikes are going quite well. From a strategic perspective, it is impossible to day how matters are developing because no one knows what the desired outcome of the attack is. The White House has urged the Iranian people to rise up now and overthrow the theocracy. It has also said access to Iranian oil and other resources is a consideration. The attack could also be about destroying Iranian missile capacity. On day three, the administration has yet to tell the world why it chose Saturday morning at 1 am Washington time to attack.
For the White House, ending this fighting and declaring victory is crucial to its continued support among MAGA, the only group that matters to Mr. Trump. Much of MAGA, like Marjorie Taylor-Green, oppose the fighting as another "forever war." Much of the old GOP is still neo-conservative and think this is a great idea. If the fighting goes on for the four or five weeks Mr. Trump says it might take to achieve whatever it is he is after, this split will start to hurt the support of the base for the president.
What has already happened is an oil-price spike (at US$80 today up more than 10% since Friday). That means more pain at the pump for drivers, and America loves to drive. The MAGA base will see higher gas prices, which will erode support for the president.
When all is said and done, the question is what comes next in Iran. A moderate government amenable to Western desires is not the most likely outcome. The Blitz, Vietnam, Yugoslavia and Iraq all showed that bombing boosts support for the government. Hardliners have the inside track. Troops on the ground can change that, but invading Iran (a nation three times as big as Iraq) is not going to be easy.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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