Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US Lost 92,000 Jobs in February, Oil Tops $100
The Trump administration is engaged in bad policy poorly executed. This is the worst of all possible worlds. Thanks to his tariffs, the president has stopped job growth and slowed economic activity. If that were the only issue, the Federal Reserve could help immensely by lowering interest rates. However, Mr. Trump has also started a war with Iran that has closed the Straits of Hormuz, shutting off 20-25% of the global oil trade. West Texas Intermediate crude traded earlier today at $119.48 per barrel, up almost 75% since the war started. That will drive prices higher, accelerating inflation. Mr. Trump has taken stagflation and made it worse.
Jeff Cox at CNBC wrote, "Nonfarm payrolls in February fell by 92,000, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. It was the third time in five months that the economy lost jobs."
"I think it just tells us that the hopes that the labor market was steadying, maybe that was too much," Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, told CNBC. "We also have inflation printing above target and oil prices rising. How long they last, we don't know, but both of our goals are risks now and we have to keep our eyes on both."
"It's bad news whichever way you look at it," said Olu Sonola, head of US economics, Fitch Ratings. "Add renewed tariff noise, higher energy prices and fresh inflationary impulses, the Fed is basically a deer in the headlights until these numbers settle into a sustainable, actionable trend."
The Fed will have to hold steady at the moment, as any move could exacerbate either inflation or unemployment. Given the political dimension of all of this, it is possible that inflation can be tamed more easily if the fighting with Iran ends soon and the Straits of Hormuz open to shipping again.
This is where bad implementation of bad policy comes into play. Mr. Trump has not explained why the US is at war with Iran. Mr. Trump has said the regime in Tehran has to go, and he wants a say in who leads the nation. After the death of the Supreme Leader, the Iranian authorities appointed his son to carry on. A hardliner with a dead father thanks to Mr. Trump is not the kind of person who is going to settle this any time soon.
To keep oil prices in check, Mr. Trump has lifted some of the sanctions on Russia to allow it to sell oil into the international market to boost supply. It also boosts the warchest of Mr. Putin who might have had to start serious negotiations if oil had stayed in the $60-70 range. Now, the war with Ukraine will continue into 2027, and po0ssibly beyond that.
What Mr. Trump and his allies in Silicon Valley (who live by "move fast and break things") do not understand is just how hard genies are to put back into bottles. Mr. Trump has claimed in social media posts that the price of oil will come down rapidly and to the old levels as soon as he wins. Forbes reported he posted, "Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace." The president then added: "ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!"
The president is wrong. Iran will destabilize the region for years now, because the regime is in a more hardlined frame of mind. Inflation is not going down. Unemployment may rise as gas prices cycle through and make transportation costs higher. Without tariffs and a war with Iran, things could start to look pretty solid. Of course, without those, there is no Trump administration.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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