Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Iran Adopts Fabian Strategy
The US and Israel have pounded Iran quite heavily over the last 13 days, and a great deal of Iranian military assets are no more. The old leader of Iran is dead and the new one was wounded in the opening hours of the war. Iran has attack neighbors that would have quite happily sat this one out, forcing them to assist the US and Israel. Out-numbered, out-gunned and out-supplied, Iran should probably surrender according to conventional wisdom. But Iran is taking a different view. Iran is simply not going to quit. It will absorb all the punishment the Israelis and Americans can administer, but it will not quit. This Fabian approach has historically succeeded, and Iran may well do likewise.
The Fabian strategy enters military history with during the Second Punic War, in which Rome and Cathage fought for control of the western Mediterrranean. This was the was when Hannibal marched his elephants over the Alps. He lost in the end to Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus known as Cunctator, the "Delayer." The Encyclopedia Brittanica says "Fabius waged a war of slow attrition, avoiding direct engagement whenever possible. Fabianism or Fabian strategy has come to mean a gradual or cautious policy." How gradual? The Second Punic War lasted 17 years. Fabius succeeded when politics back in Carthage and a Roman invasion of North Africa forced Hannibal to abandon Italy.
Essentially, Fabius can claim to have developed guerrilla warfare. It has succeeded across eras and continents. George Washington used Fabian rules of combat to defeat the British Empire. The future Duke of Wellington used it against Napoleon in Spain. Ho Chi Minh used it against both the French and Americans. An American general spoke with General Giap of North Vietnam after the war and remarked, "you never defeated us in battle." General Giap replied, "That is true. It is also irrelevant." Winning a war is not about winning battles, destroying equipment and killing the enemy. Winning a war is about breaking the enemy's will to resist.
Iran is clearly taking a page from the old Roman playbook here. Iran cannot beat Israel in a set piece battle, so it does not fight one. It uses proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas to make life for Israelis difficult. It certainly cannot defeat the US; there will not be Iranian troops in North America. But it can and has closed the Straits of Hormuz. That drives up the price of oil which creates inflation in the US. With each passing day, the American voter sees his or her gasoline addiction cost more and more. Iran is betting that America commuters and the stock market will break sooner than Iran will.
How much longer can Iran last? Indefinitely appears to be the answer. The theocratic regime is both powerful at home and resilient in the face of attack from abroad. The late Ayatollah Khamenei died and his successor and son was in place in a matter of days. The regime can and will sit on bayonets for as long as necessary.
Iran is betting that its people will stay indoors and not come into the streets to try their luck at kicking the mullahs out. The protests that the US and Israel were hoping for have not continued after the regime killed several thousands who had been protesting. Like Fabius, they will simply wait while occasionally making pinprick attacks here and there.
The White House believes that it can make life so awful for the Iranian regime that the Tehran government collapses. Tehran believes it can make life so awful for American drivers and consumers that the US has declare victory and quit. One thing is certain in all of this. It will not end any time soon. When it does, the timing will not be up to either side but rather to chance.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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