Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Iran Says Strait of Hormuz to Stay Closed
The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point for the global energy trade. Itis 24 miles across at its narrowest, about the same distance as Dover to Calais. Some 20-25% of the global energy supply (both liquefied natural gas and oil) flows through it. Iran has decided that it will prevent shipping from moving through the strait as part of its war strategy against the US and Israel. The result is soaring oil prices which will translate into moire expensive everything in the US and around the world. Iran understands that Americans will fight for all sorts of things until gas prices start rising. Already the war as added 50 cents or so to a gallon. The longer this goes on, the worse for American consumers, who are also voters. The point here is that the Iranina regime can survive.
Here is the arithmetic. The World burns 100 million barrels of oil per day. About 20 million barrels passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. Governments are tapping strategic reserves, which will help cushion the drop in supply, but it cannot make it all up. The 32 members of the International Energu Agency will put 400 million barrels on the market, the largest release ever. It represents just 4 days' supply for the world. Looked at differently, the release can replace the Gulf oil that is not traversing the strait for just under 3 weeks. On or about April 3, it will be used up.
Can Iran keep the strait closed for three weeks? One believes it could keep it closed for three months or even three years. It is a narrow channel, Iran has a long coastline from which to launch unpiloted boats or airborne drones for suicide attacks. It has also laid some sea mines that will make navigating the strait a problem.
Canadian Broadcaster CTV reported,
"Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei issued his first statement on the war on Thursday, saying Iran should close the Strait of Hormuz and keep attacking its Gulf Arab neighbors as leverage. Khamenei also called on people in Gulf countries to "shut down" U.S. bases, saying promised U.S. protection is "nothing more than a lie."
Khamenei did not appear on camera. Israeli intelligence assessed that he was likely wounded in the war's opening salvo, which he said also killed his wife, one of his sisters, his niece and his father, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
CTV also noted that the statement said, "I assure everyone that we will not refrain from avenging the blood of your martyrs. The retaliation we have in mind is not limited only to the martyrdom of the great leader of the Revolution; rather, every member of the nation who is martyred by the enemy constitutes a separate case in the file of revenge."
The extent to which Iran can do much against the US directly is unclear. There may be sleeper cells outside Iran waiting for orders, and there may well be battles in cyberspace about which the world will never know.
What is clear from the statement is that Iran is not interested in negotiating, nor would a cease-fire be in its interests right now. The longer this goes on, the higher oil prices get, and the more pain there is for commuters and consumers. The next thing will be US naval vessels escorting tankers similar to the escorts during the Tanker War of the 1980s, a segment of the Iran-Iraq War. Some will get through, but one expects losses as well. The Trump administration is having trouble putting the genie of war back in the bottle. Iran has no interest in cooperating, and sadly, it will take all parties to stop, not just the US.
Iran has warned of oil at $200 a barrel. At about $120, the gasoline prices will start to really hurt.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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