Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Energy Infrastructure Hit in Iran War
It may not feel like much has changed in the Israeli-American war against Iran since yesterday, but a significant (and bad) change has come. In the last 24 hours, energy infrastructure has become a target of both sides. Israel hit the South Pars natural gas field that provides much of the Iranian domestic energy. In retaliation, Iran hit infrastructure sites in the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. As these sites are damaged, recovery from the war and its economic effects will take longer and longer. The global economy will be in dire straits for much longer than before the attacks.
The Associated Press has explained:
The South Pars natural gas field, which came under attack this week, is part of the world's largest such field -- and an energy lifeline for Iran.
"Israel's attack on the field prompted Iran to target energy infrastructure in other Middle East countries in response, sending new shockwaves across the region and beyond."
The Worldoil.com website stated, "The escalation marks a widening of the conflict to include both upstream and downstream assets, increasing the risk of sustained supply losses. Damage assessments are ongoing, but analysts warn that repairs at major facilities could take months, tightening global balances."
Before the infrastructure was hit, analysts calculated that shipping of oil could return to something resembling normal just two weeks after any cease-fire. Getting production back to normal was calculated at about two months. Then, it will take about four to six months for the flow to bring prices back down to pre-war levels.It is now all but certain to take longer than that. If peace were declared today, it might take into 2027 for things to stabilize.
The time line is politically significant. The Trump administration is set to lose the mid-term elections quite badly (presuming the election is an honest one) in about 8 months. When the Democrats are in charge of the House, the war and its conduct will come under close scrutiny and the budget for the war may not pass.
What the administration needs to do is end the war now, or as soon as plausible (days not months). That will allow enough time for the trends to turn and perhaps the MAGA base will not stay home. Failure to do so will just make the situation worse for Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump has succeeded in alienating almost all of America's allies in the last year. Now, he discovers that he needs help and cannot get any -- unless he can convince the Arab states in the Gulf to join in. There does seem to be some hope that this could occur.
The New York Times reported:
Hours after eight ballistic missiles exploded over the Saudi capital, the kingdom's foreign minister warned that his government had limited patience with Iran and reserved the right "to take military actions if deemed necessary."
"We will not shy away from protecting our country and our economic resources," the minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, said at a news conference early Thursday morning.
Saudi Arabia has significant military muscle, but Iran has more. In addition, the Saudis have not really been battle tested. Iranian military units have seen quite a bit of combat, and that could be the difference.
If it comes to the Gulf states entering the war, Iran will have little reason to hold back, which it has done so far. This will mean even more damage to energy facilities, which means a longer recovery time. Quagmire is an apt term.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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