Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
War Going Worse than US Admits
There is a saying that generals are always fighting the last war. That is a bit of an over-statement as a great many leading military minds are focussed on new technologies and new battlefields, e.g., cyberspace. But there is also a great deal of truth in the adage. The US has a bad habit of fighting the last war and hoping that its massive advantages in production capacity and logistical infrastructure will carry the day. In Iran, the world is seeing what the Soviets learned in Afghanistan; cheap weapons often defeat expensive ones. The US is on the wrong side of this economic-military equation.
During the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan that began in 1979, the Red Army utilized helicopters to transport troops to various hotspots. The US began sending Stinger surface-to-air missiles to the mujahideen, who began shooting down Soviet helicopters. The cost of a Stinger was around $25,000, which the cost of Soviet helicopters ran into the millions. It was an untenable situation over time, and in the end, the Soviets retreated.
The American military finds itself in a similar position in its fight with Iran. Iran is quite adept at using drones to attack various targets. Their Shahad drones cost somewhere between $25-50,000. The US and its allies are relying on Patriot missile batteries to defend against drone attacks. One Patriot missile costs $4 million. Iran can produce more drones for less money, which means eventually, they will win. There could come a day when there are no more Patriot missiles because the US has used them up. Replenishment is costly for the US.
Bret Stephens wrote an op-ed in the New York Times today with the title "The War is Going Better than You Think." He details the losses of the wars from Desert Storm on and claims that this war is so much more successful because the losses are so little by comparison. That misses the point that the losses are costly in terms of materiel that will be expensive to replace.
One is reminded of the Falklands War of 1982. The HMS Sheffield was hit by one Exocet missile fired from one Super-Entendard plane; the ship sank being towed to port. From that day forward, manned surface ships have been obsolete. Naval experts may argue otherwise, but the Russian Black Sea fleet is missing many vessels because of drone attacks. Yet, there is the American navy bringing aircraft carriers to the Gulf. One does not expect the US to lose a carrier, but the economics of drones v. carrier fight is clearly with the drones in the long run.
The real problem is the same that the US had in Vietnam, tactical success is not translating into strategic advancements. The president is quite happy to talk about the Iranian navy being obliterated and the Iranian army is in disarray. Mr. Trump keeps telling the world that the Iranian government is down to its fourth or fifth string leadership because he killed all the others. That is all well and good, but the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Unless and until that is open again, the war is not a success.
The issue at hand is a matter of simple geography. The strait is about 40 kilometers wide, and Iran is on the north end of that gap. The Iranian coastline is more than 1,500 kilometers in length along the Gulf. It is, in short, an unsinkable aircraft carrier and drone factory. Unless Iran is willing to allow shipping through the strait, the US will have to send thousands upon thousands of troops to force the strait open. Holding territory in Iran is required, and it will cost hundreds if not thousands of US lives.
As Herr Clausewitz noted, war is politics by other means. The strait can be opened by force at huge cost. Or it can be opened with negotiations. For the Trump administration, that creates no-win situations all over. Winning on the battlefield is not enough.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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