Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
US, Israel, Gulf States Have Different War Aims
The US and Israel started the war with Iran on February 28. The Arab Gulf States have had to bear Iranian attacks as a result. These three different power centers are all allied in fighting the Iranian theocrats. They diverge, however, when it comes to why they are fighting. The US wants the war to end quickly with a symbolic surrender of Tehran. Israel is much more concerned with creating a buffer zone south of the Litani River in Lebanon than with anything else. The Gulf States want the war to continue until Iran is incapable of threatening them anymore. As the war goes on, these different war aims will cause fractures in the alliance, which could collapse under the pressure.
For the Americans, the war aims are difficult to discern because the administration has consistently moved the goalposts. At one time or another in the last four weeks, the US has wanted regime change, and end to the Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile programs, an end to the funding of Iranian support for its proxies. There has been talk of using this war to degrade Iranian military assets and its order of battle.
However with the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, the primary US war aim is to get the oil and LNG flowing out of the Gulf and into the markets as quickly as possible. The rise in oil and :LNG prices acts like a tax on all aspects of an economy because energy is integrated into everything. Taxes slow the economy, and that is something the US wants to avoid. Getting the Strait open and safe for transit quickly is everything to Mr. Trump.
The Israelis are in a different situation in that they want this war to go on as long as it can. Every day that passes is another day that the IDF can pound southern Lebanon in preparation for a long occupation, as happened in 1982. The objective is to "mow the lawn," that is, to cut back what Hezbollah can do. It implies that this is one in a series of actions that will be repeated as Hezbollah recovers.
One must also remember that Prime Minister Netanyahu has to hold and election before the end of October and that he faces criminal prosecution. If his popularity does not improve as a result of the war, he will continue it anyway as it protects him personally.
The Gulf States got dragged into this war by simply being in the region. They accepted US forces in their territories for security reasons. The neighborhood is tough, and having a superpower backing them made sense. The problem came when the US launched an attack and that Iran decided US bases in Gulf states were fair game. Now, their civilian populations are at risk. It is their view that this will continue to happen unless Iran takes a severe beating and possibly undergoes regime change.
When the Trump administration started this war, it announced a 4-6 week timeline for it. That is clearly not going to hold. The Israelis and Gulf Arabs want a lot more than that. And Iran is not going to open the Straits voluntarily unless the White House caves in completely. That will not happen until and unless the US suffers massive battlefield losses.
This journal expects the administration to use the Marines and special forces it has assembled in the region. The belief that it can all be done cheaply and quickly remains intact, and that is how the quagmire will start. With the Israelis and Gulf Arabs egging them on, the geniuses in the White House will allow mission creep that will put thousands of American lives at risk.
Mr. Trump set a deadline of Friday for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran will ignore. One expects Mr. Trump to launch attacks on various islands in the region and to use ground troops to take them. He will then discover that taking islands is easy, and holding them is hard. This are going to get worse. Andit is not going to be over anytime soon.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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