Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
China Wins Middle East War
Napoleon famously said that one should never interrupt an enemy when the latter is making a mistake. China has followed this sage advice in the last 38 days concerning the war the US and Israel launched against Iran. While the Americans are doggedly blasting Iran so badly that the rubble is bouncing, the Chinese have made sure they are positioned as possible peacemakers and have ensured that their energy needs continue to be met. However, China will mainly benefit from the mistakes the Trump administration has made militarily, economically and politically.
Militarily, China has a large army and navy with decent technology. The PRC spends much less on war than the US, but China does not have bases all over the world and has not really been at war in decades. Military might, however, is relative. China gains by increasing its capacities, but it also gains when the capacities of its adversaries decline. That is what is happening in Iran now. The US is using up vast amounts of ammunition and is losing expensive planes while beating on Iran.
Global strategist Wajeeh Lion wrote on Substack:
In the first four to five days of the conflict alone, U.S. Patriot batteries defending Gulf states fired an estimated 800 to 943 interceptors to counter incoming Iranian attacks. To contextualize this: primary defense contractors Lockheed Martin and Boeing collectively produce only about 620 PAC-3 interceptors annually. The U.S. military consumed approximately eighteen months of global production capacity in less than a week.
This rapid depletion drove the Pentagon's desperate, informal requests to Poland for PAC-3 MSE interceptors. Poland's refusal highlights the zero-sum reality; the inability to rapidly regenerate complex systems underscores how a protracted war with Iran directly undermines broader U.S. combat readiness for great-power competition.
Economically, the Iranian toll to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is significant because Tehran requires the payment to come in the form of Chinese yuan not US dollars. The fee is equal to about $2 million per tanker, but dollars are useless. This is a small amount, but multiply it by the 140 or so tankers that used to pass through the strait every day, and this turns into huge sums. If this is allowed to persist, and it is hard to see how Iran can be forced to stop, there will be pressure on countries to earn yuan in global trade to fund it. This shift away from the dollar takes some power away from Washington such as America being able to deny access to the SWIFT banking system used in global trade (up till now).
Politically, the Trump administration has wrecked just about every alliance America had (except for the Israeli one). Spain and Italy are denying the US use of their airspace for this war. America's Asian allies are having energy problems because of the war about which they were never consulted. Even the Gulf States on whose behalf this war is allegedly being fought are angry at the administration. It is likely that they will cease relying on the US for security as America has eliminated security in the Gulf.
Canada has already improved it ties to China after the White House did everything to insult Canada short of invasion. The European Union is moving closer to China is trade. Africa is already undergoing fraternal colonization from Beijing. In short, the US has created a credibility vacuum that the PRC is filling.
America cannot lose this war militarily. One must also remember it did not lose militarily in Vietnam; Saigon is called Ho Chi Minh City all the same.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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