Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Middle East Ceasefire is a US Loss
Last night, Donald Trump accepted a two-week ceasefire with Iran, a ceasefire proposed by the government of Pakistan. An hour later, Iran also accepted the proposal. This journal welcomes the end of the killing for a fortnight and hopes it will be permanent. That said, the conditions of the arrangement signal a significant defeat not for American arms but for American strategic policy. While the military performed brilliantly (if expensively), the lack of a strategy beyond blowing stuff up has put America in a worse position than when it started the war. While the administration is focusing on the tactical successes, it does so to cover up the strategic disaster the war has become.
The deal brought the world a sigh of relief as the unhinged president had threatened to destroy Iranian civilization if they did not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz by 8 pm Eastern time yesterday. Many thought he was threatening the use of nuclear weapons, and perhaps, he was. Mr. Trump is not a bright man and probably does not understand the gravity of using such devices. He talks and acts like a hyperactive 5-year-old, and his understanding of combat seems to be war movies and video games.
What he agreed to as a basis of negotiation, however, is mostly an Iranian wishlist. Primarily, the Strait of Hormuz is opened on terms Iran wants. Vessels will be allowed through the strait subject to coordination with the Iranian military. The fee is $2 million (payable in Chinese yuan) per vessel, and the passage is subject to technical limitations. That last condition means that if Iran claims there is a GPS problem or has too few persons at work to clear a vessel, the Iranians can prevent that ship from passing. One guarantees the US and Israel will have a hard time getting ships through.
Iran has been quite clever in this. They have abandoned any reparation claims on the understanding that they will be able to charge for passage through the strait. Moreover, they have promised to cut Oman in on the money because Oman controls the southern end of the strait. It also splits Oman from the other Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Presuming the traffic returns to pre-war levels of about 140 ships a day, the amount is $80 billion a year, each. Iran can do a lot of military rebuilding with that. In fact, it is more than Iran makes exporting oil.
As bad as that is, there is more that makes the situation worse. Israel and the GCC states are livid that the ceasefire is happening. Israel, specifically PM Netanyahu, has been spoiling for this war for ages. Stopping it before Iran can be made a failed state or before there is a liberal-bourgeois democratic revolution (not happening ever) is contrary to his interests. The GCC states are no happier. They had hoped to survive by containing Iran with US security guarantees. Those guarantees seem to be on fire along with a great many buildings in the GCC. They now are demanding "generational damage," by which they mean damage so bad it will take a generation to recover. Mr. Trump has ducked out on them all.
Then, there is Lebanon. Israel has determined that it must occupy Lebanon south of the Litani River (an area they chased Yasser Arafat from in 1982). Iranian proxies in Hezbollah will continue to resist. Israel has agreed to the ceasefire with Iran, but excludes Lebanon from the deal. Tehran will not accept a partial ceasefire, and it will continue to support their proxies. It is not too hard to see how this could wind up collapsing the entire deal, which would bring back all the death and destruction of the last 6 weeks.
The US President has made matters worse with his attack and retreat. As this journal noted yesterday, the big winner is China, but Iran is making a move for a strong second-place finish.
The decline under the Trump adminstration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
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