Cogito Ergo Non Serviam
Gulf States Leaving US Camp
The Gulf Coooperation Council [GCC] is a 45-year-old alliance among Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. It waas designed as a protective arrangement against the Iranian revolution being exported to their lands. Over the decades, the GCC states came to rely on US bases in their territory for security. Their thinking was that if Iran attacked them, the US bases there would serve as tripwires to bring the US into the fight.They calculated that threat would detter Iran, and for decades they seem to have been right. But when the US and Israel attacked Iran without warning the GCC states, the security guarantee turned into a security threat. The GCC is leaving the American camp as a result.
When the Second World War ended, the US created a system of alliances and bases around the world designed to contain the USSR. It did so very effectively, to the point where the Cold War ended with a whimper rather than a bang. The chief reason for the relative peace in many countries was the presence of US forces.
For instance, there has not been any serious fighting between the two Koreas since the early 1950s. The US forces there are not enough to stop the North from taking territory in the South, but such an attack would kill US service members, and the US would retaliate with almost everything in its arsenal. The same logic resulted in US bases in the GCC states. For a great many years, it worked. Iran was deterred enough to rely on the Houthi and Hamas and Hezboallh to engage in low-level attacks against the enemies of Iran.
This all changed when Donald Trump was led down the garden path to war by the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who sees endless war as the only way to stay out of jail. Both men are evil and one is stupid (not Mr. Netanyahu). Evil and stupid people readily engage in wars of aggression when they have the power to do so.
When the US started bombing Iran, the underlying assumption about security ub rgw Gulf region fell apart. US bases did not deter any longer. They became magnets for Iranian ordnance. From the Iranian perspective it made sense. The US attack Iran, so Iran can attack American assets wherever they might be. So, Iran struck at the GCC states with US bases. Deterrence ended contrary to the pre-attack situation.
It is acceptable in global affairs for a country to go to war and for its allies to take a few lumps with it so long as the allies were informed of the attack and approved of it. Or at least, it is all right if they do not object too much and have time to get to air raid shelters. It is quite another for a nation to attack without warning anyone and expecting its allies to be happy about the shrapnel falling on their cities, or worse a drone or missile getting past air defenses.
With Mr,. Trump in charge, the GCC is learning that an alliance with America is not the security silver bullet they thought it was. Indeed, his actions have demonstrated that the US is an unreliable and unhelpful partner. The GCC know a bad marriage when they see one, and they want a divorce.
The GCC will likely remain a significant actor in the region, but it will be less reliant on Washington and more reliant on its constituent members. They probably will not align with Russia or China, but they could move a bit closer to both. As analyst Wajee Lion said, the GCC states are not slamming the door on the US. They are quietly closing it hoping the US does not even notice.
It is a dnagerous world, and like their citizens, countries need friends. The US has fewer today than it did two months ago.
The decline under the Trump administration continues to accelerate.
© Copyright 2026 by The Kensington Review, Jeff Myhre, PhD, Editor. No part of this publication may be reproduced without written consent. Produced using Ubuntu Linux.
|
|
|
